Friday, March 26, 2010

How to Train Your Eragon

Same movie, hopefully with less Avril Lavigne. Worst. Soundtrack. Ever. But enough on Eragon, we got some good things coming for KIDS money!

Revisiting the past...we had a nice win with Diary of a Wimpy Kid. It dragged in nearly $22M over the weekend and gave us about a H$10 bump on the stock price. It was at $24M as of Wednesday, so I'm not thinking it's going to have great legs, especially (as loyal reader Qale points out) with How to Train Your Dragon coming out this weekend.

Let's talk dragons! It's got some nice theater numbers - over 4000 screens, over 2000 digital screens. This will have a pretty big impact on Alice, kicking it off of a number of 3D screens. As an aside, this is going to be interesting on movie trends.. there's only so many 3D screens, and the latest and greatest may or may not be played when it comes out. It appears to be that HTTYD is going to be large and in charge this weekend though. I can see this one easily hitting $55M, up to the mid-60s. I know it seems a lot, but it's getting warm out, kids are getting ansy, and parents will be taking them to the movies.

That's how the dragon rolls! Happy trading!

Friday, March 19, 2010

Wimpy Wimpy!

Hefty Heft! Wait, not that Wimpy!! We're talking about the Diary of a Wimpy Kid movie!

Before we talk about that, let's recap: Alice, mega bucks. It's pretty much leveled off in price, although it continues to make ridiculous money - even added some theaters this week! That was a very nice bump for us. I'll begin to start peeling money off as I need it since it won't be making too much more for the fund.

On to the opener! Personally, I think this movie looks pretty good. It's nice that it's based a book series that's new enough kids who read it will still be young enough to see the movie. On the tracking side of things, it looks like it's not really poised to do too much - most tracking puts it into the mid to high teens. Right now it's at about H$50, which gives us a break even of right around $18.5M. I've been holding it long for a good while now, and it's dropped just a little bit in price. I think it can make that price, plus some. The other thing I learned last time around with kids movies - they have good legs. They almost always end up being post adjust longs in the long run. I think I'm going to stay long and save the commission to flip it.

That's all for now! There aren't a lot of kids movies coming down the pipe, but at least we got some!

Friday, March 5, 2010

Oh Jonny....

This isn't a review for Tim Burton's Alice in Wonderland, but let me just say.. it looks ridiculous. And not ridiculously good. Eeesh.

Well, on to happier things, like making money! Percy Jackson::::: did not fail us! It was a pretty good long with an adjust up to H$85. I planned on holding it short after that, but just unloaded it instead. Good thing too, it only has dropped to around H$77 for now and appears to be stable. Money was better used elsewhere.

On to the new movie! Alice in Wonderland is Tim Burton's first movie since Sweeny Todd in December of 2007. That did pretty poorly, considering his past success, but really, it was a musical. What do you expect? Anyhoo, fans are ready for classic Tim Burton weirdness. While I feel that his latest is far too over the top to enjoy, I'm pretty sure the majority of moviegoers don't feel that way. It's really got great appeal for everyone - some action, it's rated PG for the kidlins, it's got appeal for old school Alice fans, Tim Burton attraction, 3D (if you like that sort of headache-inducing thing), lots of iffy CGI, and dreamy dreamy sexy Jonny Depp. Oh Jonny.. bring me at least $80M opening weekend so that I can adjust up to around H$216 and then continue to hold long while it rakes in the money.

This is a big bet for us at the Kids Fund. It's about 1/5 of our cash tied up in this gamble, but I've taken some criticism to heart and I'm going to play more short term and more aggressive on openers for a little bit and see if we can't get some growth.

Fingers crossed! If you see the movie, let me know how it is!

Friday, February 12, 2010

HSX Kids Fund Post: KIDS and Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief

It's not often I'll comment on a movie, but I think The Lightning thief deserves a special mention, since it's our new movie opening up. Here are another set of loved (enjoyed?) books that will go the way of Narnia. It's a Fox Pictures film, but it stinks of Walden. In summarize, it looks terrible. If Logan Lerman is as great in this movie as he was in Gamer, we'll be all set.

Seriously, who would steal from Thor?

Let's talk money: Movies like this tend to do well opening weekend, until people figure out what's been done. It started with a high value of H$93 in mid-January, but has continued to tumble down until it's at the point it is today. I'd normally go with the flow, but it's gotten to a break-even point of $30M. I really am not comfortable shorting something that has a potential to be very big. Based on the performance, I think it will be a post-adjust long-term short.

As for our last time around, Spy Next Door was a slight short, but we made it up in the post-adjust short, so no worries there. We missed Tooth Fairy...I think my mind was protecting me from its existence.

Happy trading!

Friday, January 15, 2010

I Spy Money!

Happy New Year, Kids Funders! We've got a great and hopefully profitable year ahead of us. We've been stuck around the H$24M spot for a while, but I feel that change (believe in it) is coming.

Good news! Princess in the Frog adjusted down and Alvin 2 adjusted up! We made money! Alvin is about set to delist and free up some cash. We just invested a pile into Twilight 3, which will be making buckets of money this summer.

On to the new: Spy Next Door. I'm a big Jackie Chan fan. I've always enjoyed his movies, but they can be so hit or miss. We've been holding onto this stock since it was at H$24, so even if it drops a little, we should be okay. As it stands, it only needs a little over $11M to break even, and I think it can do that. This being January and all, it'll probably be a post-adjust short.
That's all for now. I know we have some interesting movies coming up, and it's practially summer blockbuster season! Happy trading!

Friday, December 11, 2009

When you wish upon a concept...

Okay, welcome back! Or welcome me back! Sorry for the brief break. I *have* been keeping up with the fund, but have been a bit busy to write up a post. I also got marriedorsomethingnobigdeal.

So, let's just into previous performance shall we?

Planet 51 - WRONG. We were long, it didn't make money. I thought it would, really I did.

Twilight: New Moon - RIGHT! Oh so massively right! However, it has dropped a good bit, but we're still up a lot. I can't wait for it to delist, since 1/3 of portfolio is in New Moon stock (the rest is in Twilight 3 stock).

Fantastic Mr. Fox - WRONG! Why, I don't know. But it didn't make much money. I though it was.... fantastic, but then again I'm an animation nerd.

So on to more animation. Opening this weekend is The Princess and the Frog. I didn't particularly care for the trailers, but I'm not really in the princess demographic. I feel like Disney is pushing the concept and style more than they are the story. Not that kids are big into story, but as a parent, I don't think I'd like to sit through that one. Who knows... it made $3M plus in two theaters, so it may be huge. I think it'll be closer to predictions, around the $25M mark. It should have decent legs, but I don't think it'll top it's price at the moment within 4 weeks. I'll be sure to flip it to long if it appears to pick up steam into the Christmas season.

The only big movie opening will be Alvin and the Chipmunks 2. Sad for Christmas time moviegoers, happy for Alvin and Sherlock Holmes raking in most of the holiday cha-ching. I'm not sure if the The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus counts as a kids movie. I will assess before Christmas, obviously.

Friday, November 6, 2009

Hurray for Fake Brit Accents

I'm going right into this one. New trailer for Prince of Persia came out and while I expected the worst, I couldn't anticipate what I heard. Fake. British. Accent. Seriously? Who thinks this is a good idea? I can understand that in order to have continuity you may need an actor to go with an unnatural accent, but I clearly heard American accents in there as well. Jake Gyllenhaal is not suave, and definitely not princely.

Speaking of fake accents, A Christmas Carol, starring great British actors and Jim Carrey, opens this weekend. The reason for the accent makes sense here, but the casting is the bigger problem. Why not Piccard??! Anyhoo, I think the best comparison can be drawn the The Polar Express. PE opened with a 5 day total to just over $30M. I think there's even less interest in this often made story. Call me crazy, but just because it's in 3D doesn't mean it's a big draw. I'm thinking it does around $32M - 11 Friday, 13 Saturday, and 8 Sunday. That means a big short. Speaking strageries, I wouldn't hold Carol too much after post adjust. Let it get in the drop until Wednesday, then switch it to long. The Polar Express ended up with $96M after 4 weeks and $162M total.

Speaking of failures, we got Where the Wild Things Are wrong. There's not much else to say about it, other than that it just kept dropping. Ugh. And it was so much fun.

I did not play any of the other movies that opened last time. I was getting married and just didn't have time to trade. I offer no apologies!

Coming up: 2012, Planet 51, and... *shudder* Twilight 2. More on those later.