The Elephant in the Room

With such glaringly bad negative reviews and still not a single living person able to tell me in person they actually liked the movie, 10,000BC surprisingly adjusted up to H$100.04 on Sunday.


But what's happened since and what do we think will happen in the future?

Well... Surprisingly the weekday numbers haven't been terrible thus far for the ancient epic. 2.6 Monday, 2.3 Tuesday, and a 1.9 on Wednesday does show the film is however fading.

With 42.87 million already in the bank, just about everyone and their brother is predicting 50% or more drop offs from last weekend. I'm thinking it'll fall actually even more. Giving it a 65% fall would have it making 12 million this weekend and 56 total as it begins week two.

The second week should bring more 1 million dollar days each day, taking the film to 60 million heading into the third weekend. I'm not so sure the drops will stabilize for this turkey. A suggested 6 million that weekend and 4 million the third, along with a few million along the way for weekdays, and I currently would guess 10KBC is headed for a delist of 73-77, still a substantial short from where it is priced at time of post (H$89.76).

Since KIDS Fund isn't holding College Road Trip, I don't really see a reason to go into much detail on the matter. I think its a more unpredictable stock and therefore less profitable. Though for the truly dedicated, it made .7 million Monday and Tuesday and almost that Wednesday. With 15.71 already put away for the Raven flick, the movie will suffer huge competition from Horton Hears a Who. I think it may find 7 million, but wouldn't be surprised if it makes even less giving it a horrible week-to-week drop off percent. That's almost unheard of for a G rated film, but it apparently is that bad.

Finally moving on to the big boy, Horton. Opening in 3954 theatres, the animated Dr. Seuss flick is ready to dominate. Expectations are high and with the last few weeks featuring such disappointment it'd be nice to see a film really soar, don't you think?

Most of the usual suspects, tracking, other movie site prognosticators all think the film is going to open north of 40 million. They're all kind of lining up around the 45 million, which is awfully convenient since that's where the stock has been trading. Well, here at KIDS Fund, we don't follow the trend! Back in January we said 50+ million for Horton Hears a Who and we're sticking with it. (Qale actually said 60 million a few times on the message boards.)

So this is it... our first BIG movie is about to leap out the gate. Will it make us? Will it break us? Will it be an absolute wash? We'll know soon enough when Friday's numbers start rolling in, though considering the film, it'll likely cause premature panic, so don't take anything too seriously if the number doesn't knock the socks completely off.