Monsters vs Aliens vs KIDS Fund

Dreamworks is putting out a 3D animated flick this weekend called Monsters vs Aliens ( MVSA ) .  While it's not automatically obviously a big time blockbuster like Kung Fu Panda (Skadoosh!), the trailers are filled with the type of potty and gross humor young boys crave.

But is it going to play too young, that's the question I got.  In order to make a mint, it really needs to do better than just entertain junior.  See: Pixar films.

However, there are a few more things to consider.  The 3D gimmick isn't old yet, this thing is in 4,104 screens -- obviously not all of them using the 3D technology, and the KIDS market is absolutely bone dry.

Seriously, it's so dry essentially only Coroline exists. (The Jonas Brothers fell flat on their faces and never recovered. And we still haven't found the Rock since he left for Witch Mountain.)

Tracking has been putting this in the low 50s for a while, but very recently moved that down to mid-40s.  That's a pretty serious drop, in my opinion and I think that goes right back to my very first point.  MvA looks too young to be as good as previous Dreamworks Animated projects like Ice Age (first one made 46 million opening weekend in March, sequel naturally grabbed a lot more... 68 million, also in March) and it's just not the same material as Madagascar (original made 49 million opening weekend in May, sequel naturally grabbed a lot more... 63 million in November.)

Essentially what we're saying is, as a new possible franchise product, mid-40s makes perfect sense to us.  Especially if it plays young.  We're calling this one at 43-45 million.