Double Creature Feature

Well here we are, perched on the edge of one of the likely hardest weekends KIDS Fund has to predict in quite some time.

What will happen when Walt Disney's Bolt enters the market where Madagascar currently rules along side Bond, James Bond?

How exactly big will the teen vampire love story Twilight open? 

For answers to these questions and more, keep reading.  It's going to be a bumpy ride.

Let's start with the zero to hero story of Bolt.  Some of the things this feature has going for it are the following:

1. Walt Disney

2. Digital 3D

3. 3500+ screens

4. Hannah Montana

What doesn't it have going for it?

1. Tracking not so great.

2. Stiff competition from not just Madagascar's 3rd weekend, but surprisingly Twilight.

3. John Travolta

The stock price took quite a tumble for a while, but has recently made back up some ground.  Still, KIDS Fund doesn't think Bolt has what it takes to be a big breakout hit right off the bat for Disney.  This one will likely open middling and then play extremely well for most of the holidays. (Or at least until Marley and Me, the next doggie flick to come out.)

We predict somewhere around 41-43 for Bolt.  

(Colin thinks I'm a little low here, so take that for what you will.)

Oh, Edward, you're so sexy with your shirt off, your fangs out, and your birds nest you call hair.  Okay, not really so much my cup of tea, but apparently he and the rest of the fanglings in Twilight is causing Hannah Montana Best of Both Worlds Concert Movie in 3D type fangirl hype. Midnight screenings have been selling out over the last couple of weeks and the stock price keeps rising higher and higher.

Thankfully we saw what was happening and changed our short position way back at 128 and some change a share.  Can you believe the stock price is at the time of my writing this nearly 176 dollars a share?  That translates to an opening of 62 million dollars.

62 MILLION DOLLARS!

To tell you the truth, we've become mighty frightened of Edward and his pointy-toothed friends.  Sure he -claims- he won't suck our blood, but we certainly don't want to be covered in red come Sunday.  

So what does Twilight have going for it?

1. EXTREME presales for Midnight showings.

2. Teenage (mostly girl) hype.

3. Virtually empty market for romance since Bond didn't get his groove on that much.

4. 3200+ screens. The largest amount by Summit Entertainment yet!

And the downside?

1. Probable EXTREME frontloading.

2. May not appeal to anyone not a teen or tween.

3. It's Summit Entertainment.

We know, it's a tough call.  Everyone is pretty much going to ride this security out until the last possible moment before making the tough, but I think obvious call.  Twilight is being fueled by an irrational hype machine at this point and will not support these kinds of numbers being the type of film that is prodominately only aiming at young girls ages 11-17. 

Twilight is a short. How huge of a short will depend on how much more the midnight numbers tonight prop up the price even further.

I predict it'll make around 53-56 million dollars or possibly even lower which is still a hell of a lot more than it deserves.