tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-60281897671306812162023-11-16T12:01:34.763-05:00HSX KIDS FundThe happy slappy blog outlining the HSX.com's KIDS Fund!! Here we'll post news, no videos at all, and mock doodieheads.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger98125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6028189767130681216.post-9322533107735185602018-10-25T17:26:00.001-04:002018-10-25T17:26:27.223-04:00Goosebumps, Nuts, and Grinches - KIDS Makes it's First Plays<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnO4AuakYV14zw1KxQ6UKO_0N2RjNMFT2mcIdE5mqHz9u9RSwHwzwYJBc1dstwCyumJUX62KLRwiD_UOH7XgU6kzAnXrCs3aOOaxtQvb_ZcxX4mF3Mo3EsfPaaDcSkHBfqlnqGZdxiOynU/s1600/sweettit2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="255" data-original-width="170" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnO4AuakYV14zw1KxQ6UKO_0N2RjNMFT2mcIdE5mqHz9u9RSwHwzwYJBc1dstwCyumJUX62KLRwiD_UOH7XgU6kzAnXrCs3aOOaxtQvb_ZcxX4mF3Mo3EsfPaaDcSkHBfqlnqGZdxiOynU/s1600/sweettit2.jpg" /></a></div>
I finally got logged in, radared every kids movies I could think of, plus some that some may disagree on (Star Wars is for kids! So are comic book movies!!!). <br />
<br />
We've got a couple of potential winners/losers coming up here:<br />
<br />
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.hsx.com/security/view/GBUM2" target="_blank">Goosebumps 2</a> - a second installment that's doing much worse than the first. With two weeks to go, it was possible that after a surprising $740k Tuesday, it could actually make it to $50M by the end of 4 weeks and the stock is sitting at H$44ish right about now. HOWEVER... the $383k Wednesday puts it just a tick over $30M and I think it's unlikely we make it to $50M. <i>KIDS is SHORT on Goosebumps 2.</i></li>
<li><a href="https://www.hsx.com/security/view/NUTFR" target="_blank">The Nutcracker (and the 4 Realms)</a> - With the amount of marketing Disney has shoved into this movie, you'd think it would be able to hit that $70M, 4 week total, but I think we can compare it to The BFG, which at week 4 had barely cleared $50M. It might pick up a little steam going into holidays, but doubtful with things like <i>The Grinch </i> and <i>Fantastic Beasts 2</i> releasing one after the other and crushing any attempt to get some life. <i>KIDS is SHORT on Cracking Nuts. </i></li>
<li><a href="https://www.hsx.com/security/view/HTGSC" target="_blank">The Grinch</a> - Oh here we go, another Dr Seuss property. <i>The Lorax</i>, despite being a miserable pile of garbage (that I reviewed <a href="http://www.sixleggedchicken.com/2012/03/the-lorax-shut-your-mustache.html" target="_blank">here</a>...), made $177M by it's 4th weekend. Jim Carrey's version of grinch made $196M at the 4 week mark. I think it's pretty safe to say that at H$157, it's pretty low for what it has potential for. <i>KIDS is WAY LONG on unnecessary remakes!</i></li>
</ul>
<div>
Let's see how true it all is once those numbers roll in. Hopefully we're going up up up!</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6028189767130681216.post-73283528397365938212018-10-23T12:12:00.002-04:002018-10-23T12:12:53.483-04:00<div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTBISvvvSLk7uEQ0YyTguZPYqHxeDBb68JGOg-BhT9HgMCVrwZ5Xt9PvBPowMem1U9D1WYtwAiJXANnpErcf8Wx_bylXmMwLEgEJ_miWP6Xco7MQXQp8f6gIMrYnyBxgOchQXD75YhovF2/s1600/maxresdefault.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="900" data-original-width="1600" height="112" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiTBISvvvSLk7uEQ0YyTguZPYqHxeDBb68JGOg-BhT9HgMCVrwZ5Xt9PvBPowMem1U9D1WYtwAiJXANnpErcf8Wx_bylXmMwLEgEJ_miWP6Xco7MQXQp8f6gIMrYnyBxgOchQXD75YhovF2/s200/maxresdefault.jpg" width="200" /></a>Oh my goodness, we're back! KIDS fund is back! We're down a manager (I think, I haven't checked in a while, there's still some dusty piles to rummage through), but KIDS is going for glory once more! Probably more videos, but plenty of horrible, misleading predictions for all you HSX die hards. </div>
<div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
A lot has changed since I (we?) last ran the fund. Disney got big.. and scary. But they're still making KIDS movies, so that's good. Star Wars is back, more kids movies that people will insist are not. Other than that, it all starts.. tomorrow. </div>
<div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
Thanks for investing and happy playing!</div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6028189767130681216.post-54222810364165226152010-03-26T09:54:00.003-04:002010-03-26T10:06:20.891-04:00How to Train Your Eragon<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6Z5EIK43qHyNy4xGqJ-UOPj0kYGpx2lq32_-C5RoqGU8GC22gzhXSzbZjse_zMDTFSZQHAs-0Cv7_xSBYErrtSx9Bbvlb4kSmspBnD37hqcRdY2NnX5ZoqZV-5a3JtgEcoZpdQr_kQrqo/s1600/EragonTitle.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5452943558041305602" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 320px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 233px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg6Z5EIK43qHyNy4xGqJ-UOPj0kYGpx2lq32_-C5RoqGU8GC22gzhXSzbZjse_zMDTFSZQHAs-0Cv7_xSBYErrtSx9Bbvlb4kSmspBnD37hqcRdY2NnX5ZoqZV-5a3JtgEcoZpdQr_kQrqo/s320/EragonTitle.jpg" border="0" /></a> Same movie, hopefully with less Avril Lavigne. Worst. Soundtrack. Ever. But enough on Eragon, we got some good things coming for KIDS money!<br /><br />Revisiting the past...we had a nice win with Diary of a Wimpy Kid. It dragged in nearly $22M over the weekend and gave us about a H$10 bump on the stock price. It was at $24M as of Wednesday, so I'm not thinking it's going to have great legs, especially (as loyal reader Qale points out) with How to Train Your Dragon coming out this weekend.<br /><br />Let's talk dragons! It's got some nice theater numbers - over 4000 screens, over 2000 digital screens. This will have a pretty big impact on Alice, kicking it off of a number of 3D screens. As an aside, this is going to be interesting on movie trends.. there's only so many 3D screens, and the latest and greatest may or may not be played when it comes out. It appears to be that HTTYD is going to be large and in charge this weekend though. I can see this one easily hitting $55M, up to the mid-60s. I know it seems a lot, but it's getting warm out, kids are getting ansy, and parents will be taking them to the movies.<br /><br />That's how the dragon rolls! Happy trading!Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6028189767130681216.post-85074972312241928442010-03-19T09:14:00.005-04:002010-03-19T09:27:16.452-04:00Wimpy Wimpy!<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3sRfoYmniDI_9HfwiGYQCGTnF9fxKCV0CEdtmfz52x-phgN7w2YFrIxegsgjkUnj_wmRirYDvs4k2DgKKbw6Llpe8KIZ_sru7ApMzWMw7YUzV4sFcuYaer9iN8N2VzPwQJuxylZAstEx7/s1600-h/wimpy-from-popeye.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5450335625197675362" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 225px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 259px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3sRfoYmniDI_9HfwiGYQCGTnF9fxKCV0CEdtmfz52x-phgN7w2YFrIxegsgjkUnj_wmRirYDvs4k2DgKKbw6Llpe8KIZ_sru7ApMzWMw7YUzV4sFcuYaer9iN8N2VzPwQJuxylZAstEx7/s320/wimpy-from-popeye.jpg" border="0" /></a>Hefty Heft! Wait, not that Wimpy!! We're talking about the Diary of a Wimpy Kid movie! <div><div></div><br /><div>Before we talk about that, let's recap: Alice, mega bucks. It's pretty much leveled off in price, although it continues to make ridiculous money - even added some theaters this week! That was a very nice bump for us. I'll begin to start peeling money off as I need it since it won't be making too much more for the fund.<br /></div><div><br>On to the opener! Personally, I think this movie looks pretty good. It's nice that it's based a book series that's new enough kids who read it will still be young enough to see the movie. On the tracking side of things, it looks like it's not really poised to do too much - most tracking puts it into the mid to high teens. Right now it's at about H$50, which gives us a break even of right around $18.5M. I've been holding it long for a good while now, and it's dropped just a little bit in price. I think it can make that price, plus some. The other thing I learned last time around with kids movies - they have good legs. They almost always end up being post adjust longs in the long run. I think I'm going to stay long and save the commission to flip it.</div><div></div><div> </div><div> </div><div><br>That's all for now! There aren't a lot of kids movies coming down the pipe, but at least we got some!</div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6028189767130681216.post-71605885184014196712010-03-05T09:39:00.004-05:002010-03-05T09:51:42.126-05:00Oh Jonny....<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1Bl7-myTq0_8Zm30haLuGwfXYaOXEniBw0-M83l0NJT4-RhgcobICth4WWFx9WKsKfCUbqQ-K5s00oizou6T790IyL-zHvAjXUrxiLLHUw5t_xJMBn14UwNSa6KlkJQ4Njqk22b3OYwwt/s1600-h/american-mcgee-alice-movie.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5445162251625068578" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 275px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 278px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1Bl7-myTq0_8Zm30haLuGwfXYaOXEniBw0-M83l0NJT4-RhgcobICth4WWFx9WKsKfCUbqQ-K5s00oizou6T790IyL-zHvAjXUrxiLLHUw5t_xJMBn14UwNSa6KlkJQ4Njqk22b3OYwwt/s320/american-mcgee-alice-movie.jpg" border="0" /></a>This isn't a review for Tim Burton's <em>Alice in Wonderland</em>, but let me just say.. it looks ridiculous. And not ridiculously good. Eeesh.<br /><div></div><br /><div>Well, on to happier things, like making money! Percy Jackson::::: did not fail us! It was a pretty good long with an adjust up to H$85. I planned on holding it short after that, but just unloaded it instead. Good thing too, it only has dropped to around H$77 for now and appears to be stable. Money was better used elsewhere.</div><div></div><br /><div>On to the new movie! <em>Alice in Wonderland</em> is Tim Burton's first movie since <em>Sweeny Todd</em> in December of 2007. That did pretty poorly, considering his past success, but really, it was a musical. What do you expect? Anyhoo, fans are ready for classic Tim Burton weirdness. While I feel that his latest is far too over the top to enjoy, I'm pretty sure the majority of moviegoers don't feel that way. It's really got great appeal for everyone - some action, it's rated PG for the kidlins, it's got appeal for old school Alice fans, Tim Burton attraction, 3D (if you like that sort of headache-inducing thing), lots of iffy CGI, and dreamy dreamy sexy Jonny Depp. Oh Jonny.. bring me at least $80M opening weekend so that I can adjust up to around H$216 and then continue to hold long while it rakes in the money. </div><br /><div></div><div>This is a big bet for us at the Kids Fund. It's about 1/5 of our cash tied up in this gamble, but I've taken some criticism to heart and I'm going to play more short term and more aggressive on openers for a little bit and see if we can't get some growth. </div><div><br /> </div><div>Fingers crossed! If you see the movie, let me know how it is!</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6028189767130681216.post-291057163661428772010-02-12T08:48:00.003-05:002010-02-12T09:10:11.040-05:00HSX Kids Fund Post: KIDS and Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVfZjh2sLOJeelH6z_AVGKHc80idMoIqg1o2ai81A5wGOAVVEW-nFt8_5FvUHOpQeUXFj7UwVFenHzNKxwpRkACTUTebgHgcxWNvmNgE-FzTg67UTdwunSSGuFTrWuuvfFjZWIX3ND2jZu/s1600-h/thor-lightning1.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5437358664498605474" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 196px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 280px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVfZjh2sLOJeelH6z_AVGKHc80idMoIqg1o2ai81A5wGOAVVEW-nFt8_5FvUHOpQeUXFj7UwVFenHzNKxwpRkACTUTebgHgcxWNvmNgE-FzTg67UTdwunSSGuFTrWuuvfFjZWIX3ND2jZu/s320/thor-lightning1.jpg" border="0" /></a>It's not often I'll comment on a movie, but I think The Lightning thief deserves a special mention, since it's our new movie opening up. Here are another set of loved (enjoyed?) books that will go the way of Narnia. It's a Fox Pictures film, but it stinks of Walden. In summarize, it looks terrible. If Logan Lerman is as great in this movie as he was in Gamer, we'll be all set.<br /><br />Seriously, who would steal from Thor?<br /><br />Let's talk money: Movies like this tend to do well opening weekend, until people figure out what's been done. It started with a high value of H$93 in mid-January, but has continued to tumble down until it's at the point it is today. I'd normally go with the flow, but it's gotten to a break-even point of $30M. I really am not comfortable shorting something that has a potential to be very big. Based on the performance, I think it will be a post-adjust long-term short.<br /><br />As for our last time around, Spy Next Door was a slight short, but we made it up in the post-adjust short, so no worries there. We missed Tooth Fairy...I think my mind was protecting me from its existence.<br /><br />Happy trading!Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6028189767130681216.post-6518813306380234422010-01-15T11:43:00.003-05:002010-01-15T12:00:12.984-05:00I Spy Money!<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMo1pHOBOgaeELuUO4hxaB5B1oRn20407W3unXIFjQPbQQCMPyhqXc8Bp_yfhlKppO7AnBoKGv7FTcgEgtVK8pESBANgXbpZaM_b9vzh9rXyGIjIfLvRZx8wGd9CDW79zf9F0MW60NYCUq/s1600-h/SAMIndex.gif"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5427012435631635586" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 237px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 226px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiMo1pHOBOgaeELuUO4hxaB5B1oRn20407W3unXIFjQPbQQCMPyhqXc8Bp_yfhlKppO7AnBoKGv7FTcgEgtVK8pESBANgXbpZaM_b9vzh9rXyGIjIfLvRZx8wGd9CDW79zf9F0MW60NYCUq/s320/SAMIndex.gif" border="0" /></a>Happy New Year, Kids Funders! We've got a great and hopefully profitable year ahead of us. We've been stuck around the H$24M spot for a while, but I feel that change (believe in it) is coming.<br /><div></div><br /><div>Good news! Princess in the Frog adjusted down and Alvin 2 adjusted up! We made money! Alvin is about set to delist and free up some cash. We just invested a pile into Twilight 3, which will be making buckets of money this summer. </div><br /><div></div><div>On to the new: Spy Next Door. I'm a big Jackie Chan fan. I've always enjoyed his movies, but they can be so hit or miss. We've been holding onto this stock since it was at H$24, so even if it drops a little, we should be okay. As it stands, it only needs a little over $11M to break even, and I think it can do that. This being January and all, it'll probably be a post-adjust short.<br /></div><div>That's all for now. I know we have some interesting movies coming up, and it's practially summer blockbuster season! Happy trading!</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6028189767130681216.post-88930411028583121022009-12-11T10:41:00.004-05:002009-12-11T11:08:12.757-05:00When you wish upon a concept...<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBZLh5Xzbo6NQzzToHcVHapMVU8rX3MpMImyqhoTpucITanOxpa7dtSREg0AlU8kAyXo7Jt_6fsxC4dpnPgNFCDfeRUNaj_COjJ9DeqG52zBKIhdouPPZ1aB3ow3iPQohC0ImgOWi2poeb/s1600-h/tgrsp472.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5414010696354935234" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 320px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 195px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhBZLh5Xzbo6NQzzToHcVHapMVU8rX3MpMImyqhoTpucITanOxpa7dtSREg0AlU8kAyXo7Jt_6fsxC4dpnPgNFCDfeRUNaj_COjJ9DeqG52zBKIhdouPPZ1aB3ow3iPQohC0ImgOWi2poeb/s320/tgrsp472.jpg" border="0" /></a>Okay, welcome back! Or welcome me back! Sorry for the brief break. I *have* been keeping up with the fund, but have been a bit busy to write up a post. I also got marriedorsomethingnobigdeal.<br /><div></div><br /><div>So, let's just into previous performance shall we?</div><br /><div>Planet 51 - WRONG. We were long, it didn't make money. I thought it would, really I did.</div><br /><div>Twilight: New Moon - RIGHT! Oh so massively right! However, it has dropped a good bit, but we're still up a lot. I can't wait for it to delist, since 1/3 of portfolio is in New Moon stock (the rest is in Twilight 3 stock).</div><br /><div>Fantastic Mr. Fox - WRONG! Why, I don't know. But it didn't make much money. I though it was.... fantastic, but then again I'm an animation nerd. </div><div></div><br /><div>So on to more animation. Opening this weekend is The Princess and the Frog. I didn't particularly care for the trailers, but I'm not really in the princess demographic. I feel like Disney is pushing the concept and style more than they are the story. Not that kids are big into story, but as a parent, I don't think I'd like to sit through that one. Who knows... it made $3M plus in two theaters, so it may be huge. I think it'll be closer to predictions, around the $25M mark. It should have decent legs, but I don't think it'll top it's price at the moment within 4 weeks. I'll be sure to flip it to long if it appears to pick up steam into the Christmas season. </div><div></div><br /><div>The only big movie opening will be Alvin and the Chipmunks 2. Sad for Christmas time moviegoers, happy for Alvin and Sherlock Holmes raking in most of the holiday cha-ching. I'm not sure if the The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus counts as a kids movie. I will assess before Christmas, obviously.</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6028189767130681216.post-23929473172195691782009-11-06T09:53:00.004-05:002009-11-06T10:15:53.478-05:00Hurray for Fake Brit Accents<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_cZImONu9sTbGIKcu3pWdJuibSpGWwnQKVkIIhlSlgRTH1LAZiPh1ldo73DN4B2P9xx-Mp_JlrUwU26BhXF7_-8UF5kb6SxyKc7Nf3RoK6V5KM9kz6ZXaOTDQKEQDZyOL5ynptyPVSTso/s1600-h/madonna1.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5401009555113368562" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 226px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 320px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_cZImONu9sTbGIKcu3pWdJuibSpGWwnQKVkIIhlSlgRTH1LAZiPh1ldo73DN4B2P9xx-Mp_JlrUwU26BhXF7_-8UF5kb6SxyKc7Nf3RoK6V5KM9kz6ZXaOTDQKEQDZyOL5ynptyPVSTso/s320/madonna1.jpg" border="0" /></a>I'm going right into this one. New trailer for Prince of Persia came out and while I expected the worst, I couldn't anticipate what I heard. Fake. British. Accent. Seriously? Who thinks this is a good idea? I can understand that in order to have continuity you may need an actor to go with an unnatural accent, but I clearly heard American accents in there as well. Jake Gyllenhaal is not suave, and definitely not princely.<br /><div></div><br /><div>Speaking of fake accents, A Christmas Carol, starring great British actors and Jim Carrey, opens this weekend. The reason for the accent makes sense here, but the casting is the bigger problem. Why not Piccard??! Anyhoo, I think the best comparison can be drawn the The Polar Express. PE opened with a 5 day total to just over $30M. I think there's even less interest in this often made story. Call me crazy, but just because it's in 3D doesn't mean it's a big draw. I'm thinking it does around $32M - 11 Friday, 13 Saturday, and 8 Sunday. That means a big short. Speaking strageries, I wouldn't hold Carol too much after post adjust. Let it get in the drop until Wednesday, then switch it to long. The Polar Express ended up with $96M after 4 weeks and $162M total. </div><div></div><br /><div>Speaking of failures, we got Where the Wild Things Are wrong. There's not much else to say about it, other than that it just kept dropping. Ugh. And it was so much fun. </div><div></div><br /><div>I did not play any of the other movies that opened last time. I was getting married and just didn't have time to trade. I offer no apologies!</div><div></div><br /><div>Coming up: 2012, Planet 51, and... *shudder* Twilight 2. More on those later. </div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6028189767130681216.post-70750978780956970912009-10-16T10:14:00.004-04:002009-10-16T10:38:46.122-04:00Where the Money Are<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcLgO1jlxM66x8RemQgd5dcpsZ_Dm2NYnuK6FZZpTPNb0Lbvm7omYwetJ6o-VBtuQKrNRDHJtDNvu79fel4b_fLO-YywEVAdLR91T-NKU9EXioDF8QCWrkimoShCPizijMixAO_ghX3WPO/s1600-h/where-the-wild-things-are.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5393207013945590770" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 320px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 238px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcLgO1jlxM66x8RemQgd5dcpsZ_Dm2NYnuK6FZZpTPNb0Lbvm7omYwetJ6o-VBtuQKrNRDHJtDNvu79fel4b_fLO-YywEVAdLR91T-NKU9EXioDF8QCWrkimoShCPizijMixAO_ghX3WPO/s320/where-the-wild-things-are.jpg" border="0" /></a>Oh boy oh boy! Many movie watchers are becoming kids again this weekend with the release of Where the Wild Things Are. It's not a furry movie, like some will have you believe. More on that in a second.<br /><br /><br /><br />I extended the KIDS Fund winning streak to one more right. Toy Story Double Feature in 3D did not do that well, and has continued to do okay. It was a slight short, but with only one week left, it's at $25M. I expect a decent drop, even though it's only losing 7 theaters. It's kinda of a wash at the moment unless something unexpected happens. Oh well, got it right even though it didn't mean that much money.<br /><br /><br />Big one here: Where the Wild Things Are. It's opening in over 3700 theaters and has a ton of appeal since the book has been making the rounds through schools since 1963. Strange that a book with only 10 sentences in it can make a feature film... Anyhoo, analysis does not wait for pondering.. or something. There is a little competition for money this weekend: Toy Story 3D and Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs are still making some money and might dent WTWTA. I expect an opening of around $42M total - $16 - $18M on Friday, same for Saturday, and $8 to $10 on Sunday (that's us holding it long, if you have not check the price recently). It will also have pretty good legs if it does not turn out to be a stinker, but even Rotten Tomatoes *shudder* gives it 67% fresh. The negative comments are along the lines of "Didn't you read the book?" or "I didn't like it because I love indie films, even though I've never given one a good review and this one wasn't indie but it should have been" so you know it's going to be a little hit or miss with fans. I'll wait to see it myself.<br /><br /><br />Next week we are in for some fun. Opening are Astro Boy, Vampire's Assistant, and Nightmare Before Christmas in 3D. I'm not sure how I feel about that last one, but Astro Boy sure looks good. My my, it's a great time to be a kid's movie fan.<br /><br /><br />I'll try not to wander so much next time. Thanks, as always, for reading.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6028189767130681216.post-66526128488492236592009-10-02T12:01:00.003-04:002009-10-02T12:22:54.114-04:00Double Your Pleasure!<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTyQkW3lmoLYrnebtCpEIAXbgdJJ-qVJwqbwj22OyWP4zCQTPDqwbWzcq1LVExr2631MW0tch1gMEEqkijMKHbo7FQ764BRjvGnAgm0ftF83_8I_NsghLNj_fKTR7PssdAAXrUaicMi3Cs/s1600-h/Doublemint%20-%201.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5388038788219220242" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 320px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 171px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjTyQkW3lmoLYrnebtCpEIAXbgdJJ-qVJwqbwj22OyWP4zCQTPDqwbWzcq1LVExr2631MW0tch1gMEEqkijMKHbo7FQ764BRjvGnAgm0ftF83_8I_NsghLNj_fKTR7PssdAAXrUaicMi3Cs/s320/Doublemint%2520-%25201.jpg" border="0" /></a>Double your fun! With double feature 3D movies!<br /><div></div><br /><div>Weird, I know, but we have to talk about it. First, a recap from our previous episode...</div><div></div><br /><div>Last time on KIDS Fund Blog: Cloudy, with a chance of meatballs. That was the forecast for our hero running the KIDS Fund. He made a daring choice - holding it long! Would it work out, or would it be Transformers 2 all over again! Find out next time in.... CLOUDY, WITH A CHANCE OF FAILURE!<br /></div><div>Our gamble acutally did work out quite nicely. There was a slight upward adjust to H$81 from H$76, and it's continued to climb to around H$94 where it sits now. It had a great 2nd weekend and is at $64M as of Wednesday. I expect that it could hit close to $100M by the 4th weekend, but we shall see. I'll keep holding it long though. </div><div></div><br /><div>Just for fun, let's look at the track record for your new manager so far:</div><br /><div>Transformers 2: Wrong</div><div>Ice Age 3: Wrong</div><div>G-Force: Right</div><div>Aliens in the Attic: Right</div><div>GI Joe: Wrong</div><div>Shorts: Right</div><div>9: Right</div><div>CWCM: Right<br /></div><div>Oo, I have a streak going! I'm apparently terrible at predicting big movies, great with the little guys. That's how it goes. I'm hoping Christmas season will be better to me than the summer. </div><div></div><br /><div>Let's talk about this... thing.... Toy Story 3D Double Feature. The Toy Story 2 3D stock will most likely delist where it stands at halt. Not really worth keeping any cash in it. The Toy Story 3D stock will be the one to adjust. Theater count is just over 1700, but the "movie" is several hours long. Most theaters will be able to get in 3 or 4 screenings only. I'm going with a short on this. I'm not sure how short, but I think it's going to be pretty bad. On top of that, it won't have 4 weeks to reach its adjust point, so it'll be a serious post adjust short anyway. It has 2 weeks, and a 10 minute intermission (thank you, google!). That's my position, and I'm sticking by it. </div><div></div><br /><div>Hopefully I'll be extending the winning streak and the monies. We have one week off, and then we'll be tackling the very exciting Where the Wild Things Are. Stay tuned, see movies!</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6028189767130681216.post-60853184671298682462009-09-18T10:36:00.004-04:002009-09-18T10:57:55.626-04:00Hallelujah, It's Raining.... Meatballs?<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2b4Z1a3flP719C1TmgOI9Wo2j-YVYuTCV1EUJdV3I_-58TIaDMr8ecFiyEf07NvnE7t6UOXd1bt_5e88Vs-bj9ul6HozJxIg-tvoP1V7ZzoP71QR_KGXQk7ijRPpIoaIOxb85bGLYkOlD/s1600-h/food.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5382821742055039762" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 320px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 160px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj2b4Z1a3flP719C1TmgOI9Wo2j-YVYuTCV1EUJdV3I_-58TIaDMr8ecFiyEf07NvnE7t6UOXd1bt_5e88Vs-bj9ul6HozJxIg-tvoP1V7ZzoP71QR_KGXQk7ijRPpIoaIOxb85bGLYkOlD/s320/food.jpg" border="0" /></a>Here we are again with another KIDS movie update! Biggest news of all - we're finally back over H$20 million!!! It took a few months, but we're there and growing quickly. At this moment, we're up over H$300k from the big increases in this week's opener.<br /><div></div><br /><div>Old news first - 9. Yes, it did poorly. Yes, we called it right. It did $4.4M Wednesday and Thursday, and almost $11M on Friday. The adjust was to around H$33, but it has continued to drop to its current point of H$26 a share. My opinion on the movie? Pretty, but a weak weak storyline. We made money, so it's all good</div><br /><div>This week's opener is the CGI version of the wonderful KIDS book "Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs." If you have not read it, head to a bookstore and have a quick read! Currently break even is around $28M for the weekend. I think it could easily do $35 - $40M. It's an empty KIDS market (9 only sort of kind of counted) and with school starting, I think parents and kids are itching for a good weekend out. We're long.</div><br /><div></div><div>That's all for now. We have the cool IPO of The Lorax coming next weekend, and the very scary Toy Story 3D movies coming out. I have no idea how these will do. </div><br /><div></div><div>Trade hard!</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6028189767130681216.post-40454765072247125912009-09-09T12:46:00.003-04:002009-09-09T12:57:54.085-04:00Can We Get It?<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeSbDC4TlYiDo1kQqLL_Ap816XGVIkgMDcd9bxipOP44iQn5EY3fR7dviBf4fpIaYhJjDHKDVwJ5e2dXWQRPvQOC010fZ85vJpc7teQ-DRgcu3BcH4Oz92O1FgCKlM8Ov6aShZi-ALLeQb/s1600-h/district_nine.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5379512845472326114" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 213px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 320px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeSbDC4TlYiDo1kQqLL_Ap816XGVIkgMDcd9bxipOP44iQn5EY3fR7dviBf4fpIaYhJjDHKDVwJ5e2dXWQRPvQOC010fZ85vJpc7teQ-DRgcu3BcH4Oz92O1FgCKlM8Ov6aShZi-ALLeQb/s320/district_nine.jpg" border="0" /></a>There comes a time where you have to wonder... are you capable of picking correctly on these movies? First Transformers, then some other stuff that I won't talk about. Can we make money ("money")?<br /><div></div><br /><div>Why yes indeedy, we got one right! SHORTS did predictably bad and resulted in a nice profit for KIDS. It has a miserable $6.6M opening and did little after that. We are still holding it short, and although it's risen slightly, it's worth keeping that way. </div><div></div><br /><div>On to newness: 9. No, not that "District 9" nonsense. I saw the original short for 9 several years ago and have been excited since I heard the movie was coming out. The voice acting doesn't thrill me - in the original, they didn't speak (IIRC), so I'm not sure what that will do to the feel, but it's definitely still very pretty. A lot of fans have popped up since the trailer came out. It has all the workings to be a massive success, but let's face facts. It has a theater count of around 1600. It is an odd looking concept that will probably not appeal to many past the internet geeks that have been drooling over it. The price on HSX has soared to as high as H$52, which would represent something like a $15M weekend, and $9M Wednesday and Thursday. I'm still excited about the movie, but I'd put it's box office at around $3M Wdnesday, $2.5M Thursday, and $11M over the weekend with an adjust of H$35. It's currently hovering around H$40 and will probably close there. I would also assume this will be a pretty safe post adjust short. </div><div></div><br /><div>That's all for now!! We've got one of several fall kids movies coming in the form of strange weather very soon. </div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6028189767130681216.post-892118089740518472009-08-20T13:49:00.004-04:002009-08-20T14:06:45.006-04:00Eat My SHORTs<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip8iwqCiJQ0HDZUw0d9khYpF-b6hD4_6MJnpJXaBN4YK0tTQsYTmodcz9m323vT4CTnr2JPOqhXs9vcj6tLdqJeYv6tB0S1nivcU-kIga-zd4iRyF1ydGNYZVeBP4wT8f2g_hWfwLiKBJ-/s1600-h/shorts-kids.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5372108466712291890" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 320px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 204px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip8iwqCiJQ0HDZUw0d9khYpF-b6hD4_6MJnpJXaBN4YK0tTQsYTmodcz9m323vT4CTnr2JPOqhXs9vcj6tLdqJeYv6tB0S1nivcU-kIga-zd4iRyF1ydGNYZVeBP4wT8f2g_hWfwLiKBJ-/s320/shorts-kids.jpg" border="0" /></a>Sorry, I've been watching way to much Simpsons lately. Whatever.<br /><br />Hey, is that young Henry to the left there from Time Traveler's Wife? No? Good for him.<br /><br />Let's recap what happened to us since we last met: We shorted GI Joe and did not play Ponyo or Bandslam.<br /><br /><br /><br />GI Joe first. GI Joe was held short with a prediction of about $40M opening. How wrong I was. It adjusted up H$20 and had an actual weekend of about $54M ($2M less than the adjust estimate). It's been doing surprisingly well, but so has our post adjust short. I've dropped most of the shares to play this weekend's opener.<br /><br /><br /><br />Ponyo was a slight long, and Bandslam was a massive short. Not much surprise there. The big surprise was the chaos that happened at work and lasted well past halt time. I normally do updates on Friday morning, but after that I've switched to Thursday afternoons even though my predictions are before official "gut check" time. I do apologize, but we'll be consistent moving forward.<br /><br /><br /><br />A new opener! Shorts is the latest from turbo-director Robert Rodriguez and his first movie since Grindhouse over two years ago. While I'm sure he's hoping to return to his children's movie successes, I doubt this will be a money maker. In 2005, Sharkboy and Lavagirl raked in a measly $12M in its opening weekend, and less than $40M overall. This movie is currently tracking in the mid-single digits with a break even currently a little under $12M, so we'll be going short on SHORT. We've already played this position, so I don't have to worry about missing deadlines tomorrow.<br /><br /><br /><br />Coming up soon, we have 9 - based on a great animated short that was released several years ago - and we have Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs. Other than that, we are in a dry spell with all the halloween horror flicks flooding the market.<br /><br /><br /><br />Thanks for reading and keep trading hard!Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6028189767130681216.post-75055073540432125622009-08-07T10:48:00.004-04:002009-08-07T11:07:54.344-04:00Real American Heros<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiPuPJ02IR9FHQ9aNt6SnllRg6V0EfbPygoJtwyhOHAQG8pCNLyyyNsmZSn3pYNer3KOdZoNGRSrlm1HcCwfl9TvvkoaFcwhUrN03GAxAN5EpfinABJiVGuHIrDvzuYjwk0Hx1IQz6F_cJ/s1600-h/GI_Joe00-covB.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5367238720799988274" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 211px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 320px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgiPuPJ02IR9FHQ9aNt6SnllRg6V0EfbPygoJtwyhOHAQG8pCNLyyyNsmZSn3pYNer3KOdZoNGRSrlm1HcCwfl9TvvkoaFcwhUrN03GAxAN5EpfinABJiVGuHIrDvzuYjwk0Hx1IQz6F_cJ/s320/GI_Joe00-covB.jpg" border="0" /></a>Or will it be Real American Chumps? The long awaited GI Joe is coming out today. While it's rated PG-13, I think we can all agree that GIJ is firmly within the kids realm. Before I jump into angry ranting on that, let's recap what's happened since the last post.<br /><div></div><br /><div>G-Force opened at a little over $32M and boosted the stock price by H$13. It was a nice boost for the fund and it was good to see a kids film do well. The movie is at $74M total at the moment only two weeks in, so I think it has a great chance of making its price of H$99 with plenty of monies to spare. I expect another good weekend with the current movie offering out there. </div><div></div><br /><div>Aliens in the Attic was quite a different story. It opened to a terrible $7.8M and dropkicked the price of the stock big time. We held it short, but only to the tune of 6k shares. Don't worry, we had it long as it rose, so it was a good win overall. The stock still has some room to drop, as the movie is making about $1M a day and probably won't do too well this weekend. </div><div></div><br /><div>Now the big one: GI Joe. This movie has been rumoured to be a terrible mess. Even the trailers look pretty dumb. I always remembered him as a tank-top wearing macho man, not some doofus in a black skin-tight suit. Oh well, in the end, nobody really cares or remembers. They just see the name and flock in. The midnight numbers look pretty encouraging for a long, but I honestly think it was just those dying of curiousity that bumped the numbers and it still won't make over $40M this weekend. By this flawed and biased logic, the KIDS Fund will be going short. </div><div></div><br /><div>Coming next week is the anime import Ponyo. Not sure if it's getting anything like a wide release, but I think we can all agree it's not going to do very well. Nothing can top Pokemon. We also have another Robert Rodriguez kids film Shorts. HSX has humerously named it SHORT, but I think it will be quite the opposite.</div><div><br />Be well, trade hard. See you next time! </div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6028189767130681216.post-6588279145106748922009-07-23T09:53:00.004-04:002009-07-23T10:28:44.568-04:00KIDS Fund Stimulus Worked!<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgB88Fje-uczgC0ZudFyKONGDOMqsIlIBA_37otx9_7DmwnTueboRKxg9Scko_psOCC9k8Lt-1wZLP-HEtCnt89Bm1vGvoTaoHl5pXqi4QjOYSb02FX6eEGURgCeunDvfORbc7AqSYyaK8u/s1600-h/indie.bmp"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5361661963138334898" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 316px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 320px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgB88Fje-uczgC0ZudFyKONGDOMqsIlIBA_37otx9_7DmwnTueboRKxg9Scko_psOCC9k8Lt-1wZLP-HEtCnt89Bm1vGvoTaoHl5pXqi4QjOYSb02FX6eEGURgCeunDvfORbc7AqSYyaK8u/s320/indie.bmp" border="0" /></a>Sorry, been a few days/weeks since I have posted. I've got news, some news, and sort of news.<br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div>Before any of that, after dropping to H$15M, I'm happy to say we're back up to over <span style="font-size:180%;">H$17M!!!!</span></div><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div>Let's start with news: The last film the fund played, Ice Age 3, did pretty dang well. However, in the overpriced world of HSX, it did not do so well. It adjusted down by about H$35 and put the fund into a H$5 million hole. Thankfully it has risen steadily and is now hovering at H$159, just above the $157M it has made so far. With one more weekend, it should be good for a few more monies. I have chosen to drop the film for another...</div><br /><div></div><div></div><br /><div>Some news: Fund no play Harry Potter. Although it had a slight upward adjust, it's now right back to where it was at the beginning of the weekend. It had a massive nearly $10M weekend, so I expect it will make its price pretty easily. It's just too expensive for this little fund to play. I've already done the "all the eggs in one basket" thing, and it's too costly. If you've got a big fund, probably staying long is a safe bet. </div><br /><div></div><div></div><br /><div>IPO Time! Secretariat (SCTRT) is a movie about horsies. Hey, kids movie! It's also Disney, so I think KIDS is justified in playing it. I'll keep an eye on it and drop if it turns into Disney's first R-rated film (although Touchstone has had many R films, but I don't think that counts). </div><div></div><br /><div>Neil Gaiman's "Graveyard Book" is being turned into a movie. It's a bit dark, but Gaiman is usually pretty kidsish. </div><div></div><br /><div>Hobbit - Part 2: More Hobbit was announced last week. It will be the second part of the Hobbit film to be released a year after the first one. More money for us, I suppose. </div><div></div><br /><div>Last, new Indiana Jones. The last one was pretty bad, but, hey, it was fun and make the last fund some sweet sweet cash. I dropped Ice Age 3 in pursuit of this one. I'll probably ride it up to the low 200s, and then wait. Too high, you say? Well, the last one made $125M 5-day opening, $317M total domestic. But fans were upset by it and won't see the next one, you say? We can all agree Star Wars Ep 1 was pretty bad, at least as bad as Indie 4. Fans naturally would boycott the next movie to the tune of... oh wait, it had $110M 5-day. But certainly after that, the next one... oh, even more? $158M 5-day total? Well... we shall see about Indie, but don't discount ravenous fans who keep hoping for more. You know they're all Lucas/Star Wars fans anyway. They never learn. </div><br /><div></div><div></div><br /><div>Okay, we've got a movie coming out this weekend! G-Force is about on par with Beverly Hills Chihuahuahua, Garfield, and Alvin and the Chipmonks. They've all done surprisingly well, and I think G-Force will be no different. It's got decent voice talent, and there hasn't been a very kid friendly movie since Ice Age 3 (Harry Potter is a bit scary for the little ones). Tracking was at high 20s, and it's priced there. We're long on the stock for now, but I will check back tomorrow before it halts since it's climbing. </div><br /><div></div><br /><div>Last thing, last thing... Aliens in the Attic is tracking at low teens, maybe not even that high. The stock seems a bit overvalued at the moment, but I'm not complaining about the rise. Probably will not be making its price, regardless of whether it rises any more. Dreadful kid's market at the moment. </div><br /><div></div><br /><div>Thanks for reading, thanks for holding on the KIDS through the bad times! Trade hard. </div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6028189767130681216.post-2009393780505222812009-07-01T12:37:00.003-04:002009-07-01T12:46:17.699-04:00Short! Long! No wait...<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5LB5Br71XuQRb0aTsxDZVCDVVXOhPX3RdFXwkrEtPQcfKurUwhSR8H6WyuM2NaJVhuroPr6dK2gydRG1JbZUi4-v2vTKjouP3OpurfWyKbdQ36qWNBxq3cc2MX_J6-eVw43RnmwpYsaBU/s1600-h/Child%20Sadness.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5353533963086591554" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 250px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 245px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5LB5Br71XuQRb0aTsxDZVCDVVXOhPX3RdFXwkrEtPQcfKurUwhSR8H6WyuM2NaJVhuroPr6dK2gydRG1JbZUi4-v2vTKjouP3OpurfWyKbdQ36qWNBxq3cc2MX_J6-eVw43RnmwpYsaBU/s320/Child%2520Sadness.jpg" border="0" /></a>Well, as you all well know, Transformers did all sorts of record breaking and also broke KIDS Fund... almost. I've still got a little money left and I hope to redeem myself this weekend.<br /><div></div><br /><div>The rundown - massive adjust up for Transformers. It had a nice drop on Monday, but has gone up at an alarming rate Tuesday and Wednesday, so I decided to drop it and let it go. It's too much money to flip it constantly, and it's too much of a risk to keep draining the Fund.</div><div></div><br /><div>Coming out today: Ice Age 3D. While Transformers will *sigh* continue to rake in big bucks, I'm hoping a bit of younger-skewed entertainment will be just what the family ordered over the 4th of July holiday. Here's my thoughts on the matter: $12M Wednesday, $10M Thursday, $60M weekend. That should give me a nice upwards adjust, with good legs through the next few weeks. I think Harry Potter will kill it at that point, so maybe hold until it gets to H$190 or so. These are all speculations, so feel free to disregard, especially after my terrible math last week. </div><div></div><br /><div>Keep trading. New HSX is getting faster as time goes on, so it should get easier!</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6028189767130681216.post-89697333258860169592009-06-24T12:11:00.003-04:002009-06-24T12:22:12.404-04:00Transform Me the Money!<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiH00zfGPKGtIttTVgD7i7n-7CLo0_-OgU8yAwDgTnUdpSjdmLtLBSUCCeEV_8v74lVZHwk1AEfpBI2OgXM8VqxGE60tYpGbDCSy-g4QuS6WMsk6Z-oy-Jc9eja0_cqSmE56LN71rmoo6e-/s1600-h/thomas-the-tank-engine-transformer.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5350930011755026178" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 270px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 227px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiH00zfGPKGtIttTVgD7i7n-7CLo0_-OgU8yAwDgTnUdpSjdmLtLBSUCCeEV_8v74lVZHwk1AEfpBI2OgXM8VqxGE60tYpGbDCSy-g4QuS6WMsk6Z-oy-Jc9eja0_cqSmE56LN71rmoo6e-/s320/thomas-the-tank-engine-transformer.jpg" border="0" /></a>In perhaps one of the most foolish - or brilliant - starts in KIDS Fund history, Transformers 2 will be held short. "Why, oh, why are you not on the hype wagon?" you might ask. Well, I have some very good reasons and here they are:<br /><div></div><br /><div>1) Looks like Wednesday will be around $50M. Let's give the movie another $40M on Wednesday. At current price (H$338), the movie would need to make $92M over the weekend just to break even. The original didn't even do that well with nobody going in knowing how good or bad it would be. Given reviews, RT scores, etc, it seems unlikely this one will top the other.</div><div></div><br /><div>2) Severe frontloading from Wednesday will impact the weekend BO. I predict somewhere around $70M, resulting in a massive short. </div><div></div><br /><div>3) Even if it does make money, it will be a post adjust short (at least for the short term). Swapping from long to short would be close to H$700k. I'd rather be sitting short to begin with. </div><div></div><br /><div>4) C'mon. It looks terrible. </div><div></div><br /><div>Some doubts: IMAX, people don't care how bad movies look, people thought the first one was terrific, people think *shudder* Megan Fox is *shudder* attractive, on and on. There is no way to tell, but we will see on Sunday. </div><br /><div></div><div>Also, don't forget to set back your clocks tonight... no wait, don't forget to make all of your trades by 4PM today - we'll be on new HSX tomorrow evening!</div><div></div><br /><div>Thanks for reading, and I hope we all get this one right. Happy trading!</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6028189767130681216.post-3761560742696219612009-06-16T11:48:00.003-04:002009-06-16T11:53:17.570-04:00KIDS Fund IPOing Again!<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8ym5Sm2cs2wK_HHOmF1kU70HNPr4_ze7dUyd0Rb47-_QoGaVq4vVqrrSxtQnxR21fFR3i3cIW1MDXGW-Kiyd7UYJ_yftTIyQ5z4NibaN7yL2XvV8pbxgczZHwrf1qaq5nd-RU4wY3j7R7/s1600-h/24ipo.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5347953934882835250" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 287px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 192px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg8ym5Sm2cs2wK_HHOmF1kU70HNPr4_ze7dUyd0Rb47-_QoGaVq4vVqrrSxtQnxR21fFR3i3cIW1MDXGW-Kiyd7UYJ_yftTIyQ5z4NibaN7yL2XvV8pbxgczZHwrf1qaq5nd-RU4wY3j7R7/s320/24ipo.jpg" border="0" /></a>That's right boys and girls. KIDS Fund is back. A moment of silence for Qale who will not be running the fund this time around....<br /><div></div><br /><div></div><br /><div>Silence.</div><br /><div></div><br /><div>Okay. On to other important things. I managed to get a snapshot of the fund before it was cleared, so I should be ready to get everything radared and set on Wednesday of next week. Please shoot me an email or post on <a href="http://talk.hsx.com/movies">Movies</a> if you see I'm missing a critical KIDS movie. </div><div></div><br /><div>Recap: I look forward to a cool new year and hopefully will be as successful as Qale was in his reign. IPO Tuesday, trading begins Wednesday. I will have a link for buying then...</div><div></div><br /><div>Thanks and happy trading!</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6028189767130681216.post-39025688051627220172009-04-17T11:58:00.005-04:002009-04-17T12:03:37.437-04:00He's so dreamy...<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/__Liv_KB01TI/Sein5BC8McI/AAAAAAAAAJg/JFCzzC___d8/s1600-h/kittah.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 200px; height: 142px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/__Liv_KB01TI/Sein5BC8McI/AAAAAAAAAJg/JFCzzC___d8/s200/kittah.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5325691157340762562" /></a><br />[This post about Zac Efron's new film 17 Again (<span class="Apple-style-span" style="font-family: helvetica; font-size: 13px; font-weight: bold; "><a href="http://movies.hsx.com/servlet/SecurityDetail?symbol=SVNTN">SVNTN</a>) </span>has been censored by Net Nanny because it only consisted of sick deviant things that Qale and Colin would do if they were, in fact, 17 Again. Instead of submitting loyal fans of the KIDS Fundblog to such depravity, we instead feature this picture of a kitten. We also would like to notify you that the KIDS Fund will be holding 17 Again LONG and are predicting 20-23 million.]Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6028189767130681216.post-22303415212096361562009-04-16T15:00:00.004-04:002009-04-16T15:16:22.171-04:00Winners, Once and Always<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZdjDxXFWGhHv4hvKCI3lBCzzRrY5Elf7YntYdXIag4kmiqbOKltFfCbWfHJT3YcIuWZ00J2SLByqqV9vZ3M0xx4G9XadKC2Zw8a4d2LaAga0ig1TdQUlGXmdSRIqMh8HchwgM0VlIuPZL/s1600-h/932683_20060811_screen011.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5325370140876578498" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 268px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 191px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgZdjDxXFWGhHv4hvKCI3lBCzzRrY5Elf7YntYdXIag4kmiqbOKltFfCbWfHJT3YcIuWZ00J2SLByqqV9vZ3M0xx4G9XadKC2Zw8a4d2LaAga0ig1TdQUlGXmdSRIqMh8HchwgM0VlIuPZL/s320/932683_20060811_screen011.jpg" border="0" /></a>That's right, KIDS' faithful, we have picked them all right! We're back in the game! It was a glorious weekend for some films, embarrassingly bad for others. More on that in a second. The important thing is that this gave us a much needed boost and we are sitting at just over H$97 million at the moment and are ready to delist in the next few weeks. If we slump again..well.. it could be August before you're rid of us. <div><div></div><br /><div>On to the movies. Hannah Montana gave us a great bump last time around and didn't fail is this time either. Miley gave us a $34M weekend resulting in a very large upward adjust from H$75.72 to H$91.80. In addition, the movie pulled in another $4.6 million on Monday and has continued to do well this week. Could be another good weekend, we shall see. </div><div></div><br /><div>Dragonball Evolution was not so lucky, only pulling in $4.65 million all weekend. It adjusted downward, and I don't anticipate it getting to its price. I actually saw this one - it was terrible. Just terrible. I mean, you've never seen a movie this bad. WOM will kill this one if anybody has the sense to listen. </div><div></div><br /><div>Coming up next week - THE WORLD!!! Well, something like that, the documentary Earth. It's priced cheap and won't take much to have a big jump. Here's hoping it will delist us!</div></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6028189767130681216.post-24404477190847643402009-04-09T22:39:00.005-04:002009-04-09T22:50:29.282-04:00Full Circle with Hannah Montana<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/__Liv_KB01TI/Sd6xvhu6s5I/AAAAAAAAAJY/DkLdrDm6Uxw/s1600-h/dollar-sign-money-bag-1.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 320px; height: 320px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/__Liv_KB01TI/Sd6xvhu6s5I/AAAAAAAAAJY/DkLdrDm6Uxw/s320/dollar-sign-money-bag-1.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5322887239665628050" /></a>So we meet again Miss Hannah Montana. IF THAT IS YOUR REAL NAME!<div><br /></div><div>Yes indeed it is with the Achy Breaky Offspring that KIDS Fund got its start this time around and maybe it'll be how we finally pull this train into the station.</div><div><br /></div><div>Except, unfortunately, I'm as less certain of this movie's box office potiential as I've ever been. Sure, her 3D Concert Experience did over 30 million. But it was assumed at the time it'd be a 1 week only performance.</div><div><br /></div><div>Oh and since then Jonas Brothers ripped us apart, threw is down, and kicked dirt in our faces.</div><div><br /></div><div>Still, I keep relying on old standbys when it comes to this sort of prediction and here there are.</div><div><br /></div><div>1. KIDS market is pretty much cleared out now that Aliens vs Monsters has had some time to itself in theatres.</div><div><br /></div><div>2. Hannah Montana IS still big. She still posts songs in the top charts and the ads claim there are handfuls of new tunes to be heard exclusively during the movie.</div><div><br /></div><div>3. Her film is rated G! It's been a little while since we've seen a G rated flick hit the theatres. This is one that the entire family can enjoy over the Easter Weekend.</div><div><br /></div><div>So with all that in mind, I think Hannah Montana can beat expectations of tracking in the mid-twenties and climb into the low 30s. I think it'll be a nail biter photo finish for first place with Fast and the Furious with the boys coming out on top, but with a LONG adjust for our favorite Disney chick.</div>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6028189767130681216.post-56562517649855498212009-04-03T14:46:00.003-04:002009-04-03T14:53:22.485-04:00Monsters vs FAIL<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVYEOnSeWVZ6hR1ywy6N9xWURSzVKTwmF77k-iK1H7KEfznj80pM1o6ATJrww_jHxUjna3427kRO_S05Fst1rmpd2v6HgKneDDtVbipZjLt1anRaPcf28-p0eAbjVUTpt5OzJBkEE4osnt/s1600-h/18f43_0201484021.01.LZZZZZZZ.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 210px; height: 320px;" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgVYEOnSeWVZ6hR1ywy6N9xWURSzVKTwmF77k-iK1H7KEfznj80pM1o6ATJrww_jHxUjna3427kRO_S05Fst1rmpd2v6HgKneDDtVbipZjLt1anRaPcf28-p0eAbjVUTpt5OzJBkEE4osnt/s320/18f43_0201484021.01.LZZZZZZZ.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5320540155650448178" /></a><br />Well, once again we've gambled and lost. Monsters vs Aliens did a massive $59.3 million weekend, which was even higher than the estimates HSX used to adjust it upward to H$157.14. We didn't lost a lot, but every bit helps. <div><br /></div><div>MVSA has pulled in over $3 million a day since its release, so I expect it to have MONSTER legs as this weekend's openers ALIENate the kid demographic yet again. </div><div><br />No fear, faithful play money players - we have two very cool openers coming up April 10th. Dragonball Evolution, a live-action treatment of the popular cartoon series, and the big potential film Hannah Montana the movie. I'm a bit scared, but if we get these right, we'll be oh so close to delisting. And that's all we really want, right?</div><div><br /></div><div>Until next time, happy trading!</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6028189767130681216.post-33360110496265836992009-03-26T17:02:00.006-04:002009-03-26T17:26:29.987-04:00Monsters vs Aliens vs KIDS Fund<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/__Liv_KB01TI/ScvtqIl_oZI/AAAAAAAAAJQ/fZpXKqhRoTc/s1600-h/kid-money.jpg"><img style="float:left; margin:0 10px 10px 0;cursor:pointer; cursor:hand;width: 240px; height: 200px;" src="http://1.bp.blogspot.com/__Liv_KB01TI/ScvtqIl_oZI/AAAAAAAAAJQ/fZpXKqhRoTc/s320/kid-money.jpg" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5317605093158134162" /></a><div>Dreamworks is putting out a 3D animated flick this weekend called Monsters vs Aliens ( <span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-style: italic; font-family:verdana;font-size:12px;"><b style="font-weight: 600; "><a href="http://movies.hsx.com/servlet/SecurityDetail?symbol=MVSA" title="Short : R) ``Monsters vs. Aliens''" onmouseover="var A=('Short'=='Buy')?'Held Long':'Held Short';status=A+' : R) ``Monsters vs. Aliens\'\'';pop('MVSA',1);return true;" onmouseout="if(PopGo)clearTimeout(PopGo);" style="text-decoration: underline; color: rgb(61, 17, 123); ">MVSA</a><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-family:Georgia;font-size:16px;"> )<span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0); font-style: italic; font-family:verdana;font-size:12px;"><b style="font-weight: 600; "><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-style: normal; font-weight: normal; font-family:Georgia;font-size:16px;"> . While it's not automatically obviously a big time blockbuster like Kung Fu Panda (Skadoosh!), the trailers are filled with the type of potty and gross humor young boys crave.</span></b></span></span></b></span><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div>But is it going to play too young, that's the question I got. In order to make a mint, it really needs to do better than just entertain junior. See: Pixar films.</div><div><br /></div><div>However, there are a few more things to consider. The 3D gimmick isn't old yet, this thing is in 4,104 screens -- obviously not all of them using the 3D technology, and the KIDS market is absolutely bone dry.</div><div><br /></div><div>Seriously, it's so dry essentially only Coroline exists. (The Jonas Brothers fell flat on their faces and never recovered. And we still haven't found the Rock since he left for Witch Mountain.)</div><div><br /></div><div>Tracking has been putting this in the low 50s for a while, but very recently moved that down to mid-40s. That's a pretty serious drop, in my opinion and I think that goes right back to my very first point. MvA looks too young to be as good as previous Dreamworks Animated projects like Ice Age (first one made 46 million opening weekend in March, sequel naturally grabbed a lot more... 68 million, also in March) and it's just not the same material as Madagascar (original made 49 million opening weekend in May, sequel naturally grabbed a lot more... 63 million in November.)</div><div><br /></div><div>Essentially what we're saying is, as a new possible franchise product, mid-40s makes perfect sense to us. Especially if it plays young. We're calling this one at 43-45 million. </div>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6028189767130681216.post-626719868473404002009-03-18T16:25:00.003-04:002009-03-18T16:36:48.802-04:00One Small Step<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4YqUf9JSVbHJereIFqBq1iA_cae6apLMwYAj-r3Y941E9U9MUFqzLKWWE-i_dct_PKiraGTqA2xgdZJ3k_G8fSdrI5qqw7tJVQhPhXh1t3tpveG5AbrgeU0_RRiVPEAy6ljO5aL-84HVm/s1600-h/20071225210207_29)pedestrizilla.jpg"><img id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5314629411794748082" style="FLOAT: left; MARGIN: 0px 10px 10px 0px; WIDTH: 211px; CURSOR: hand; HEIGHT: 268px" alt="" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg4YqUf9JSVbHJereIFqBq1iA_cae6apLMwYAj-r3Y941E9U9MUFqzLKWWE-i_dct_PKiraGTqA2xgdZJ3k_G8fSdrI5qqw7tJVQhPhXh1t3tpveG5AbrgeU0_RRiVPEAy6ljO5aL-84HVm/s320/20071225210207_29)pedestrizilla.jpg" border="0" /></a>That right there is a giant step - and it's gold, baby! The fund is currently hovering (LIKE A FREAKIN' SPACESHIP!!!) just over H$90 million, and we're so ready to delist. Weekends like this last one help out quite a bit as we finally got one right with Race to Witch Mountain.<br /><div></div><br /><div>With a mere $25M weekend, WCMTN adjusted down two small H-dollars to H$67.50. Since then it's dropped a little, but seems to be coming back. With few kids movies out, I see good legs on this flick. It made $1.8M on Monday and Tuesday each, and should have a decent weekend with a very adult-skewed lineup releasing.</div><br /><div></div><div>Despite this win, recent announcements by the Fed and big bonuses to HSX shareholders have resulted in a lot of stocks bottoming out. We'll weather this storm and push on towards profit and fun. The next movie that we really really hoped to not have to play is Monsters vs Aliens. Stay tuned for more on that potential money-maker!</div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0