HSX KIDS Fund

How to Train Your Eragon

2010-03-26T09:54:00.003-04:00

Same movie, hopefully with less Avril Lavigne. Worst. Soundtrack. Ever. But enough on Eragon, we got some good things coming for KIDS money!

Revisiting the past...we had a nice win with Diary of a Wimpy Kid. It dragged in nearly $22M over the weekend and gave us about a H$10 bump on the stock price. It was at $24M as of Wednesday, so I'm not thinking it's going to have great legs, especially (as loyal reader Qale points out) with How to Train Your Dragon coming out this weekend.

Let's talk dragons! It's got some nice theater numbers - over 4000 screens, over 2000 digital screens. This will have a pretty big impact on Alice, kicking it off of a number of 3D screens. As an aside, this is going to be interesting on movie trends.. there's only so many 3D screens, and the latest and greatest may or may not be played when it comes out. It appears to be that HTTYD is going to be large and in charge this weekend though. I can see this one easily hitting $55M, up to the mid-60s. I know it seems a lot, but it's getting warm out, kids are getting ansy, and parents will be taking them to the movies.

That's how the dragon rolls! Happy trading!

Wimpy Wimpy!

2010-03-19T09:14:00.005-04:00

Hefty Heft! Wait, not that Wimpy!! We're talking about the Diary of a Wimpy Kid movie!

Before we talk about that, let's recap: Alice, mega bucks. It's pretty much leveled off in price, although it continues to make ridiculous money - even added some theaters this week! That was a very nice bump for us. I'll begin to start peeling money off as I need it since it won't be making too much more for the fund.

On to the opener! Personally, I think this movie looks pretty good. It's nice that it's based a book series that's new enough kids who read it will still be young enough to see the movie. On the tracking side of things, it looks like it's not really poised to do too much - most tracking puts it into the mid to high teens. Right now it's at about H$50, which gives us a break even of right around $18.5M. I've been holding it long for a good while now, and it's dropped just a little bit in price. I think it can make that price, plus some. The other thing I learned last time around with kids movies - they have good legs. They almost always end up being post adjust longs in the long run. I think I'm going to stay long and save the commission to flip it.

That's all for now! There aren't a lot of kids movies coming down the pipe, but at least we got some!

Oh Jonny....

2010-03-05T09:39:00.004-05:00

This isn't a review for Tim Burton's Alice in Wonderland, but let me just say.. it looks ridiculous. And not ridiculously good. Eeesh.

Well, on to happier things, like making money! Percy Jackson::::: did not fail us! It was a pretty good long with an adjust up to H$85. I planned on holding it short after that, but just unloaded it instead. Good thing too, it only has dropped to around H$77 for now and appears to be stable. Money was better used elsewhere.

On to the new movie! Alice in Wonderland is Tim Burton's first movie since Sweeny Todd in December of 2007. That did pretty poorly, considering his past success, but really, it was a musical. What do you expect? Anyhoo, fans are ready for classic Tim Burton weirdness. While I feel that his latest is far too over the top to enjoy, I'm pretty sure the majority of moviegoers don't feel that way. It's really got great appeal for everyone - some action, it's rated PG for the kidlins, it's got appeal for old school Alice fans, Tim Burton attraction, 3D (if you like that sort of headache-inducing thing), lots of iffy CGI, and dreamy dreamy sexy Jonny Depp. Oh Jonny.. bring me at least $80M opening weekend so that I can adjust up to around H$216 and then continue to hold long while it rakes in the money.

This is a big bet for us at the Kids Fund. It's about 1/5 of our cash tied up in this gamble, but I've taken some criticism to heart and I'm going to play more short term and more aggressive on openers for a little bit and see if we can't get some growth.

Fingers crossed! If you see the movie, let me know how it is!

HSX Kids Fund Post: KIDS and Percy Jackson & The Olympians: The Lightning Thief

2010-02-12T08:48:00.003-05:00

It's not often I'll comment on a movie, but I think The Lightning thief deserves a special mention, since it's our new movie opening up. Here are another set of loved (enjoyed?) books that will go the way of Narnia. It's a Fox Pictures film, but it stinks of Walden. In summarize, it looks terrible. If Logan Lerman is as great in this movie as he was in Gamer, we'll be all set.

Seriously, who would steal from Thor?

Let's talk money: Movies like this tend to do well opening weekend, until people figure out what's been done. It started with a high value of H$93 in mid-January, but has continued to tumble down until it's at the point it is today. I'd normally go with the flow, but it's gotten to a break-even point of $30M. I really am not comfortable shorting something that has a potential to be very big. Based on the performance, I think it will be a post-adjust long-term short.

As for our last time around, Spy Next Door was a slight short, but we made it up in the post-adjust short, so no worries there. We missed Tooth Fairy...I think my mind was protecting me from its existence.

Happy trading!

I Spy Money!

2010-01-15T11:43:00.003-05:00

Happy New Year, Kids Funders! We've got a great and hopefully profitable year ahead of us. We've been stuck around the H$24M spot for a while, but I feel that change (believe in it) is coming.

Good news! Princess in the Frog adjusted down and Alvin 2 adjusted up! We made money! Alvin is about set to delist and free up some cash. We just invested a pile into Twilight 3, which will be making buckets of money this summer.

On to the new: Spy Next Door. I'm a big Jackie Chan fan. I've always enjoyed his movies, but they can be so hit or miss. We've been holding onto this stock since it was at H$24, so even if it drops a little, we should be okay. As it stands, it only needs a little over $11M to break even, and I think it can do that. This being January and all, it'll probably be a post-adjust short.

That's all for now. I know we have some interesting movies coming up, and it's practially summer blockbuster season! Happy trading!

When you wish upon a concept...

2009-12-11T10:41:00.004-05:00

Okay, welcome back! Or welcome me back! Sorry for the brief break. I *have* been keeping up with the fund, but have been a bit busy to write up a post. I also got marriedorsomethingnobigdeal.

So, let's just into previous performance shall we?

Planet 51 - WRONG. We were long, it didn't make money. I thought it would, really I did.

Twilight: New Moon - RIGHT! Oh so massively right! However, it has dropped a good bit, but we're still up a lot. I can't wait for it to delist, since 1/3 of portfolio is in New Moon stock (the rest is in Twilight 3 stock).

Fantastic Mr. Fox - WRONG! Why, I don't know. But it didn't make much money. I though it was.... fantastic, but then again I'm an animation nerd.

So on to more animation. Opening this weekend is The Princess and the Frog. I didn't particularly care for the trailers, but I'm not really in the princess demographic. I feel like Disney is pushing the concept and style more than they are the story. Not that kids are big into story, but as a parent, I don't think I'd like to sit through that one. Who knows... it made $3M plus in two theaters, so it may be huge. I think it'll be closer to predictions, around the $25M mark. It should have decent legs, but I don't think it'll top it's price at the moment within 4 weeks. I'll be sure to flip it to long if it appears to pick up steam into the Christmas season.

The only big movie opening will be Alvin and the Chipmunks 2. Sad for Christmas time moviegoers, happy for Alvin and Sherlock Holmes raking in most of the holiday cha-ching. I'm not sure if the The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus counts as a kids movie. I will assess before Christmas, obviously.

Hurray for Fake Brit Accents

2009-11-06T09:53:00.004-05:00

I'm going right into this one. New trailer for Prince of Persia came out and while I expected the worst, I couldn't anticipate what I heard. Fake. British. Accent. Seriously? Who thinks this is a good idea? I can understand that in order to have continuity you may need an actor to go with an unnatural accent, but I clearly heard American accents in there as well. Jake Gyllenhaal is not suave, and definitely not princely.

Speaking of fake accents, A Christmas Carol, starring great British actors and Jim Carrey, opens this weekend. The reason for the accent makes sense here, but the casting is the bigger problem. Why not Piccard??! Anyhoo, I think the best comparison can be drawn the The Polar Express. PE opened with a 5 day total to just over $30M. I think there's even less interest in this often made story. Call me crazy, but just because it's in 3D doesn't mean it's a big draw. I'm thinking it does around $32M - 11 Friday, 13 Saturday, and 8 Sunday. That means a big short. Speaking strageries, I wouldn't hold Carol too much after post adjust. Let it get in the drop until Wednesday, then switch it to long. The Polar Express ended up with $96M after 4 weeks and $162M total.

Speaking of failures, we got Where the Wild Things Are wrong. There's not much else to say about it, other than that it just kept dropping. Ugh. And it was so much fun.

I did not play any of the other movies that opened last time. I was getting married and just didn't have time to trade. I offer no apologies!

Coming up: 2012, Planet 51, and... *shudder* Twilight 2. More on those later.

Where the Money Are

2009-10-16T10:14:00.004-04:00

Oh boy oh boy! Many movie watchers are becoming kids again this weekend with the release of Where the Wild Things Are. It's not a furry movie, like some will have you believe. More on that in a second.

I extended the KIDS Fund winning streak to one more right. Toy Story Double Feature in 3D did not do that well, and has continued to do okay. It was a slight short, but with only one week left, it's at $25M. I expect a decent drop, even though it's only losing 7 theaters. It's kinda of a wash at the moment unless something unexpected happens. Oh well, got it right even though it didn't mean that much money.

Big one here: Where the Wild Things Are. It's opening in over 3700 theaters and has a ton of appeal since the book has been making the rounds through schools since 1963. Strange that a book with only 10 sentences in it can make a feature film... Anyhoo, analysis does not wait for pondering.. or something. There is a little competition for money this weekend: Toy Story 3D and Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs are still making some money and might dent WTWTA. I expect an opening of around $42M total - $16 - $18M on Friday, same for Saturday, and $8 to $10 on Sunday (that's us holding it long, if you have not check the price recently). It will also have pretty good legs if it does not turn out to be a stinker, but even Rotten Tomatoes *shudder* gives it 67% fresh. The negative comments are along the lines of "Didn't you read the book?" or "I didn't like it because I love indie films, even though I've never given one a good review and this one wasn't indie but it should have been" so you know it's going to be a little hit or miss with fans. I'll wait to see it myself.

Next week we are in for some fun. Opening are Astro Boy, Vampire's Assistant, and Nightmare Before Christmas in 3D. I'm not sure how I feel about that last one, but Astro Boy sure looks good. My my, it's a great time to be a kid's movie fan.

I'll try not to wander so much next time. Thanks, as always, for reading.

Double Your Pleasure!

2009-10-02T12:01:00.003-04:00

Double your fun! With double feature 3D movies!

Weird, I know, but we have to talk about it. First, a recap from our previous episode...

Last time on KIDS Fund Blog: Cloudy, with a chance of meatballs. That was the forecast for our hero running the KIDS Fund. He made a daring choice - holding it long! Would it work out, or would it be Transformers 2 all over again! Find out next time in.... CLOUDY, WITH A CHANCE OF FAILURE!

Our gamble acutally did work out quite nicely. There was a slight upward adjust to H$81 from H$76, and it's continued to climb to around H$94 where it sits now. It had a great 2nd weekend and is at $64M as of Wednesday. I expect that it could hit close to $100M by the 4th weekend, but we shall see. I'll keep holding it long though.

Just for fun, let's look at the track record for your new manager so far:

Transformers 2: Wrong

Ice Age 3: Wrong

G-Force: Right

Aliens in the Attic: Right

GI Joe: Wrong

Shorts: Right

9: Right

CWCM: Right

Oo, I have a streak going! I'm apparently terrible at predicting big movies, great with the little guys. That's how it goes. I'm hoping Christmas season will be better to me than the summer.

Let's talk about this... thing.... Toy Story 3D Double Feature. The Toy Story 2 3D stock will most likely delist where it stands at halt. Not really worth keeping any cash in it. The Toy Story 3D stock will be the one to adjust. Theater count is just over 1700, but the "movie" is several hours long. Most theaters will be able to get in 3 or 4 screenings only. I'm going with a short on this. I'm not sure how short, but I think it's going to be pretty bad. On top of that, it won't have 4 weeks to reach its adjust point, so it'll be a serious post adjust short anyway. It has 2 weeks, and a 10 minute intermission (thank you, google!). That's my position, and I'm sticking by it.

Hopefully I'll be extending the winning streak and the monies. We have one week off, and then we'll be tackling the very exciting Where the Wild Things Are. Stay tuned, see movies!

Hallelujah, It's Raining.... Meatballs?

2009-09-18T10:36:00.004-04:00

Here we are again with another KIDS movie update! Biggest news of all - we're finally back over H$20 million!!! It took a few months, but we're there and growing quickly. At this moment, we're up over H$300k from the big increases in this week's opener.

Old news first - 9. Yes, it did poorly. Yes, we called it right. It did $4.4M Wednesday and Thursday, and almost $11M on Friday. The adjust was to around H$33, but it has continued to drop to its current point of H$26 a share. My opinion on the movie? Pretty, but a weak weak storyline. We made money, so it's all good

This week's opener is the CGI version of the wonderful KIDS book "Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs." If you have not read it, head to a bookstore and have a quick read! Currently break even is around $28M for the weekend. I think it could easily do $35 - $40M. It's an empty KIDS market (9 only sort of kind of counted) and with school starting, I think parents and kids are itching for a good weekend out. We're long.

That's all for now. We have the cool IPO of The Lorax coming next weekend, and the very scary Toy Story 3D movies coming out. I have no idea how these will do.

Trade hard!

Can We Get It?

2009-09-09T12:46:00.003-04:00

There comes a time where you have to wonder... are you capable of picking correctly on these movies? First Transformers, then some other stuff that I won't talk about. Can we make money ("money")?

Why yes indeedy, we got one right! SHORTS did predictably bad and resulted in a nice profit for KIDS. It has a miserable $6.6M opening and did little after that. We are still holding it short, and although it's risen slightly, it's worth keeping that way.

On to newness: 9. No, not that "District 9" nonsense. I saw the original short for 9 several years ago and have been excited since I heard the movie was coming out. The voice acting doesn't thrill me - in the original, they didn't speak (IIRC), so I'm not sure what that will do to the feel, but it's definitely still very pretty. A lot of fans have popped up since the trailer came out. It has all the workings to be a massive success, but let's face facts. It has a theater count of around 1600. It is an odd looking concept that will probably not appeal to many past the internet geeks that have been drooling over it. The price on HSX has soared to as high as H$52, which would represent something like a $15M weekend, and $9M Wednesday and Thursday. I'm still excited about the movie, but I'd put it's box office at around $3M Wdnesday, $2.5M Thursday, and $11M over the weekend with an adjust of H$35. It's currently hovering around H$40 and will probably close there. I would also assume this will be a pretty safe post adjust short.

That's all for now!! We've got one of several fall kids movies coming in the form of strange weather very soon.

Eat My SHORTs

2009-08-20T13:49:00.004-04:00

Sorry, I've been watching way to much Simpsons lately. Whatever.

Hey, is that young Henry to the left there from Time Traveler's Wife? No? Good for him.

Let's recap what happened to us since we last met: We shorted GI Joe and did not play Ponyo or Bandslam.

GI Joe first. GI Joe was held short with a prediction of about $40M opening. How wrong I was. It adjusted up H$20 and had an actual weekend of about $54M ($2M less than the adjust estimate). It's been doing surprisingly well, but so has our post adjust short. I've dropped most of the shares to play this weekend's opener.

Ponyo was a slight long, and Bandslam was a massive short. Not much surprise there. The big surprise was the chaos that happened at work and lasted well past halt time. I normally do updates on Friday morning, but after that I've switched to Thursday afternoons even though my predictions are before official "gut check" time. I do apologize, but we'll be consistent moving forward.

A new opener! Shorts is the latest from turbo-director Robert Rodriguez and his first movie since Grindhouse over two years ago. While I'm sure he's hoping to return to his children's movie successes, I doubt this will be a money maker. In 2005, Sharkboy and Lavagirl raked in a measly $12M in its opening weekend, and less than $40M overall. This movie is currently tracking in the mid-single digits with a break even currently a little under $12M, so we'll be going short on SHORT. We've already played this position, so I don't have to worry about missing deadlines tomorrow.

Coming up soon, we have 9 - based on a great animated short that was released several years ago - and we have Cloudy With a Chance of Meatballs. Other than that, we are in a dry spell with all the halloween horror flicks flooding the market.

Thanks for reading and keep trading hard!

Real American Heros

2009-08-07T10:48:00.004-04:00

Or will it be Real American Chumps? The long awaited GI Joe is coming out today. While it's rated PG-13, I think we can all agree that GIJ is firmly within the kids realm. Before I jump into angry ranting on that, let's recap what's happened since the last post.

G-Force opened at a little over $32M and boosted the stock price by H$13. It was a nice boost for the fund and it was good to see a kids film do well. The movie is at $74M total at the moment only two weeks in, so I think it has a great chance of making its price of H$99 with plenty of monies to spare. I expect another good weekend with the current movie offering out there.

Aliens in the Attic was quite a different story. It opened to a terrible $7.8M and dropkicked the price of the stock big time. We held it short, but only to the tune of 6k shares. Don't worry, we had it long as it rose, so it was a good win overall. The stock still has some room to drop, as the movie is making about $1M a day and probably won't do too well this weekend.

Now the big one: GI Joe. This movie has been rumoured to be a terrible mess. Even the trailers look pretty dumb. I always remembered him as a tank-top wearing macho man, not some doofus in a black skin-tight suit. Oh well, in the end, nobody really cares or remembers. They just see the name and flock in. The midnight numbers look pretty encouraging for a long, but I honestly think it was just those dying of curiousity that bumped the numbers and it still won't make over $40M this weekend. By this flawed and biased logic, the KIDS Fund will be going short.

Coming next week is the anime import Ponyo. Not sure if it's getting anything like a wide release, but I think we can all agree it's not going to do very well. Nothing can top Pokemon. We also have another Robert Rodriguez kids film Shorts. HSX has humerously named it SHORT, but I think it will be quite the opposite.

Be well, trade hard. See you next time!

KIDS Fund Stimulus Worked!

2009-07-23T09:53:00.004-04:00

Sorry, been a few days/weeks since I have posted. I've got news, some news, and sort of news.

Before any of that, after dropping to H$15M, I'm happy to say we're back up to over H$17M!!!!

Let's start with news: The last film the fund played, Ice Age 3, did pretty dang well. However, in the overpriced world of HSX, it did not do so well. It adjusted down by about H$35 and put the fund into a H$5 million hole. Thankfully it has risen steadily and is now hovering at H$159, just above the $157M it has made so far. With one more weekend, it should be good for a few more monies. I have chosen to drop the film for another...

Some news: Fund no play Harry Potter. Although it had a slight upward adjust, it's now right back to where it was at the beginning of the weekend. It had a massive nearly $10M weekend, so I expect it will make its price pretty easily. It's just too expensive for this little fund to play. I've already done the "all the eggs in one basket" thing, and it's too costly. If you've got a big fund, probably staying long is a safe bet.

IPO Time! Secretariat (SCTRT) is a movie about horsies. Hey, kids movie! It's also Disney, so I think KIDS is justified in playing it. I'll keep an eye on it and drop if it turns into Disney's first R-rated film (although Touchstone has had many R films, but I don't think that counts).

Neil Gaiman's "Graveyard Book" is being turned into a movie. It's a bit dark, but Gaiman is usually pretty kidsish.

Hobbit - Part 2: More Hobbit was announced last week. It will be the second part of the Hobbit film to be released a year after the first one. More money for us, I suppose.

Last, new Indiana Jones. The last one was pretty bad, but, hey, it was fun and make the last fund some sweet sweet cash. I dropped Ice Age 3 in pursuit of this one. I'll probably ride it up to the low 200s, and then wait. Too high, you say? Well, the last one made $125M 5-day opening, $317M total domestic. But fans were upset by it and won't see the next one, you say? We can all agree Star Wars Ep 1 was pretty bad, at least as bad as Indie 4. Fans naturally would boycott the next movie to the tune of... oh wait, it had $110M 5-day. But certainly after that, the next one... oh, even more? $158M 5-day total? Well... we shall see about Indie, but don't discount ravenous fans who keep hoping for more. You know they're all Lucas/Star Wars fans anyway. They never learn.

Okay, we've got a movie coming out this weekend! G-Force is about on par with Beverly Hills Chihuahuahua, Garfield, and Alvin and the Chipmonks. They've all done surprisingly well, and I think G-Force will be no different. It's got decent voice talent, and there hasn't been a very kid friendly movie since Ice Age 3 (Harry Potter is a bit scary for the little ones). Tracking was at high 20s, and it's priced there. We're long on the stock for now, but I will check back tomorrow before it halts since it's climbing.

Last thing, last thing... Aliens in the Attic is tracking at low teens, maybe not even that high. The stock seems a bit overvalued at the moment, but I'm not complaining about the rise. Probably will not be making its price, regardless of whether it rises any more. Dreadful kid's market at the moment.

Thanks for reading, thanks for holding on the KIDS through the bad times! Trade hard.

Short! Long! No wait...

2009-07-01T12:37:00.003-04:00

Well, as you all well know, Transformers did all sorts of record breaking and also broke KIDS Fund... almost. I've still got a little money left and I hope to redeem myself this weekend.

The rundown - massive adjust up for Transformers. It had a nice drop on Monday, but has gone up at an alarming rate Tuesday and Wednesday, so I decided to drop it and let it go. It's too much money to flip it constantly, and it's too much of a risk to keep draining the Fund.

Coming out today: Ice Age 3D. While Transformers will *sigh* continue to rake in big bucks, I'm hoping a bit of younger-skewed entertainment will be just what the family ordered over the 4th of July holiday. Here's my thoughts on the matter: $12M Wednesday, $10M Thursday, $60M weekend. That should give me a nice upwards adjust, with good legs through the next few weeks. I think Harry Potter will kill it at that point, so maybe hold until it gets to H$190 or so. These are all speculations, so feel free to disregard, especially after my terrible math last week.

Keep trading. New HSX is getting faster as time goes on, so it should get easier!

Transform Me the Money!

2009-06-24T12:11:00.003-04:00

In perhaps one of the most foolish - or brilliant - starts in KIDS Fund history, Transformers 2 will be held short. "Why, oh, why are you not on the hype wagon?" you might ask. Well, I have some very good reasons and here they are:

1) Looks like Wednesday will be around $50M. Let's give the movie another $40M on Wednesday. At current price (H$338), the movie would need to make $92M over the weekend just to break even. The original didn't even do that well with nobody going in knowing how good or bad it would be. Given reviews, RT scores, etc, it seems unlikely this one will top the other.

2) Severe frontloading from Wednesday will impact the weekend BO. I predict somewhere around $70M, resulting in a massive short.

3) Even if it does make money, it will be a post adjust short (at least for the short term). Swapping from long to short would be close to H$700k. I'd rather be sitting short to begin with.

4) C'mon. It looks terrible.

Some doubts: IMAX, people don't care how bad movies look, people thought the first one was terrific, people think *shudder* Megan Fox is *shudder* attractive, on and on. There is no way to tell, but we will see on Sunday.

Also, don't forget to set back your clocks tonight... no wait, don't forget to make all of your trades by 4PM today - we'll be on new HSX tomorrow evening!

Thanks for reading, and I hope we all get this one right. Happy trading!

KIDS Fund IPOing Again!

2009-06-16T11:48:00.003-04:00

That's right boys and girls. KIDS Fund is back. A moment of silence for Qale who will not be running the fund this time around....

Silence.

Okay. On to other important things. I managed to get a snapshot of the fund before it was cleared, so I should be ready to get everything radared and set on Wednesday of next week. Please shoot me an email or post on Movies if you see I'm missing a critical KIDS movie.

Recap: I look forward to a cool new year and hopefully will be as successful as Qale was in his reign. IPO Tuesday, trading begins Wednesday. I will have a link for buying then...

Thanks and happy trading!

He's so dreamy...

2009-04-17T11:58:00.005-04:00

[This post about Zac Efron's new film 17 Again (SVNTN) has been censored by Net Nanny because it only consisted of sick deviant things that Qale and Colin would do if they were, in fact, 17 Again. Instead of submitting loyal fans of the KIDS Fundblog to such depravity, we instead feature this picture of a kitten. We also would like to notify you that the KIDS Fund will be holding 17 Again LONG and are predicting 20-23 million.]

Winners, Once and Always

2009-04-16T15:00:00.004-04:00

That's right, KIDS' faithful, we have picked them all right! We're back in the game! It was a glorious weekend for some films, embarrassingly bad for others. More on that in a second. The important thing is that this gave us a much needed boost and we are sitting at just over H$97 million at the moment and are ready to delist in the next few weeks. If we slump again..well.. it could be August before you're rid of us.

On to the movies. Hannah Montana gave us a great bump last time around and didn't fail is this time either. Miley gave us a $34M weekend resulting in a very large upward adjust from H$75.72 to H$91.80. In addition, the movie pulled in another $4.6 million on Monday and has continued to do well this week. Could be another good weekend, we shall see.

Dragonball Evolution was not so lucky, only pulling in $4.65 million all weekend. It adjusted downward, and I don't anticipate it getting to its price. I actually saw this one - it was terrible. Just terrible. I mean, you've never seen a movie this bad. WOM will kill this one if anybody has the sense to listen.

Coming up next week - THE WORLD!!! Well, something like that, the documentary Earth. It's priced cheap and won't take much to have a big jump. Here's hoping it will delist us!

Full Circle with Hannah Montana

2009-04-09T22:39:00.005-04:00

So we meet again Miss Hannah Montana. IF THAT IS YOUR REAL NAME!

Yes indeed it is with the Achy Breaky Offspring that KIDS Fund got its start this time around and maybe it'll be how we finally pull this train into the station.

Except, unfortunately, I'm as less certain of this movie's box office potiential as I've ever been. Sure, her 3D Concert Experience did over 30 million. But it was assumed at the time it'd be a 1 week only performance.

Oh and since then Jonas Brothers ripped us apart, threw is down, and kicked dirt in our faces.

Still, I keep relying on old standbys when it comes to this sort of prediction and here there are.

1. KIDS market is pretty much cleared out now that Aliens vs Monsters has had some time to itself in theatres.

2. Hannah Montana IS still big. She still posts songs in the top charts and the ads claim there are handfuls of new tunes to be heard exclusively during the movie.

3. Her film is rated G! It's been a little while since we've seen a G rated flick hit the theatres. This is one that the entire family can enjoy over the Easter Weekend.

So with all that in mind, I think Hannah Montana can beat expectations of tracking in the mid-twenties and climb into the low 30s. I think it'll be a nail biter photo finish for first place with Fast and the Furious with the boys coming out on top, but with a LONG adjust for our favorite Disney chick.

Monsters vs FAIL

2009-04-03T14:46:00.003-04:00

Well, once again we've gambled and lost. Monsters vs Aliens did a massive $59.3 million weekend, which was even higher than the estimates HSX used to adjust it upward to H$157.14. We didn't lost a lot, but every bit helps.

MVSA has pulled in over $3 million a day since its release, so I expect it to have MONSTER legs as this weekend's openers ALIENate the kid demographic yet again.

No fear, faithful play money players - we have two very cool openers coming up April 10th. Dragonball Evolution, a live-action treatment of the popular cartoon series, and the big potential film Hannah Montana the movie. I'm a bit scared, but if we get these right, we'll be oh so close to delisting. And that's all we really want, right?

Until next time, happy trading!

Monsters vs Aliens vs KIDS Fund

2009-03-26T17:02:00.006-04:00

Dreamworks is putting out a 3D animated flick this weekend called Monsters vs Aliens ( MVSA ) . While it's not automatically obviously a big time blockbuster like Kung Fu Panda (Skadoosh!), the trailers are filled with the type of potty and gross humor young boys crave.

But is it going to play too young, that's the question I got. In order to make a mint, it really needs to do better than just entertain junior. See: Pixar films.

However, there are a few more things to consider. The 3D gimmick isn't old yet, this thing is in 4,104 screens -- obviously not all of them using the 3D technology, and the KIDS market is absolutely bone dry.

Seriously, it's so dry essentially only Coroline exists. (The Jonas Brothers fell flat on their faces and never recovered. And we still haven't found the Rock since he left for Witch Mountain.)

Tracking has been putting this in the low 50s for a while, but very recently moved that down to mid-40s. That's a pretty serious drop, in my opinion and I think that goes right back to my very first point. MvA looks too young to be as good as previous Dreamworks Animated projects like Ice Age (first one made 46 million opening weekend in March, sequel naturally grabbed a lot more... 68 million, also in March) and it's just not the same material as Madagascar (original made 49 million opening weekend in May, sequel naturally grabbed a lot more... 63 million in November.)

Essentially what we're saying is, as a new possible franchise product, mid-40s makes perfect sense to us. Especially if it plays young. We're calling this one at 43-45 million.

One Small Step

2009-03-18T16:25:00.003-04:00

That right there is a giant step - and it's gold, baby! The fund is currently hovering (LIKE A FREAKIN' SPACESHIP!!!) just over H$90 million, and we're so ready to delist. Weekends like this last one help out quite a bit as we finally got one right with Race to Witch Mountain.

With a mere $25M weekend, WCMTN adjusted down two small H-dollars to H$67.50. Since then it's dropped a little, but seems to be coming back. With few kids movies out, I see good legs on this flick. It made $1.8M on Monday and Tuesday each, and should have a decent weekend with a very adult-skewed lineup releasing.

Despite this win, recent announcements by the Fed and big bonuses to HSX shareholders have resulted in a lot of stocks bottoming out. We'll weather this storm and push on towards profit and fun. The next movie that we really really hoped to not have to play is Monsters vs Aliens. Stay tuned for more on that potential money-maker!

Exactly what IS he cooking, anyway?

2009-03-12T21:58:00.006-04:00

Jonas Brothers (JBC3D) knocked us on our keisters pretty nicely. Post adjust has been a nice give back but you really can't compare gaining 600k after losing about 3 million on the stock.

It's amusing that Coraline has stolen back many of those 3D screens. Too bad that flick isn't on the exchange anymore.

But you know... IT DOESN'T MATTER THAT CORALINE ISN'T ON THE EXCHANGE ANYMORE.

The Rock says he's got a new movie coming out this weekend called Race to Witch Mountian (WCMTN) and it's going to hopefully layeth the smackdown on all the compeition.

We kind of have a small problem though. See, the stock has been in stronger flux than even most openers tend to be in the days leading up to their release. Worse, tracking and other website forecasters are widely varied on what they think the Disney movie will do.

So, I'll just tell it to you like I see it.

Race to Witch Mountian looks cheesy as all hell. The Rock looks patentely lost in his attempts to interact with those weirdo kids. And speaking of which, what is up with the Space Aliens? I don't remember aliens being a part of the original.

Still, the kid market hasn't exactly seen a big event movie in two weeks. Three weeks if you consider the fact that the Jonas Brothers big event movie turned out to be a terrible event movie.

I really wished the stock price wasn't currently hovering at the mid-70's like it is, because that means it needs around 26 million dollars to break even. That's actually right where I have my prediction set. So, unless something drastic happens, we don't expect much movement either with a LONG or SHORT position.

The possibility of this breaking out doesn't seem very likely (which means it probably will), but the fact that it could miss the target seems more so. Movies that star The Rock tend to reliably open in the near 20 million range so we're gonna stick with SHORT and hope for the best.

Jonas Brothers != Hannah Montana

2009-03-04T14:23:00.004-05:00

As suprising as it may be, the girlies did not show the brothers Jonas the kind of love we thought they would. I was suprised. Were you?

The numbers: $12.7M for the weekend, resulting in a fabulous post adjust to H$34.29 from H$90.47. With a half million on Monday, I really doubt it's even going to make its price, hence the slow drop off even after that terrible adjust.

So where do we stand? We're down a little bit, but have made up a lot of ground by Qale's quick thinking on how this would effect other Disney related movie projects. We're still hoping to delist soon, so stay tooned for that!

Coming up soon: Escape from Witch Mountain - another Disney gem (or bomb?) releasing March 13th.

Red Hot Jonas Brothers Ready to Set Theatres Blazing

2009-02-26T16:51:00.006-05:00

A year ago, KIDS Fund was just getting underway. We were so young, so naive, so not-yet-appearing-nude in our Fundcast.

I know some of you are still trying to forget that image.

But one thing we were absolutely positively certain of was the success of Hannah Montana's 3D Concert Experience.

Despite the crazy ass 1.0 multiplier, despite the limited screens it would be showing on, and despite my mom not understanding why I was dressed in a wig and wearing makeup, we knew Billy Ray's girl would bust out a big opening weekend.

And boy did she!

Opening at 31 million dollars on a mere 687 screens, Hannah Montana's "Best of Both Worlds" movie blew the doors of theatres. A per screen average of over $45,000 was induced by high demand, little supply, and higher box office ticket prices. Kiddies that normally fork over less than adults were paying upwards of 15 dollars a seat!

And you know who was the opening act for Miley Cyrus in that box office smash? The Jonas Brothers.

Flashfoward to present day: We have a wide open kids market with Coroline starting to wane (and forced to give over its 3D screens). We have again a limited engagement, this time the 1 week only is the IMAX 3D screens. We have it opening in more screens. We have the crazy high presale numbers. We have ticket prices high once again. And our main event is the Jonas Brothers themselves.

I believe that -they- are a bigger draw than Miley now. I believe that as much as girls love to enjoy a "normal girl by day, pop star by night" fantasy, they're three times as crazy about boys. Especially three of them. In 3D. With promises that this movie experience won't just include concert footage, but much more behind the scenes stuff which will also give glimpses of Taylor Swift -- another big draw.

So, it is my estimation that HSX is once again failing to realize (though they've caught on a bit better than with Miley) that JBC3D is a LONG. Currently the stock price sits at 86.47 making the break even point around 30 million. Well if Miley did 31, I think the Jonas Brothers can do upwards of 37. If it went past 40, I still wouldn't be surprised.

So rock on Brothers rock on!

You lose some, you ... lose some more

2009-02-11T10:40:00.003-05:00

Wow, not a good weekend for the ol' KIDS Fund. While Coraline didn't do that great, and Pink Panther 2 was not that bad of a BO, we still were on the losing end of the adjusts.

Coraline first. A pretty good $16.8M weekend meant an adjust up on the stock from H$27.26 to H$44.09. The film also had a reasonably good monday tacking another million onto the BO total. It's gone up a few H$ since adjust, but I think it will end up being a mild post-adjust long. If you're holding it short and didn't dump on Monday after the drop, you're probably better off losing this stock.

Pink Panther 2. The sequal nobody wanted, but anybody would see on a whim. It pulled in a reasonable $11.6M over the weekend, causing a downward adjust from H$47.02 to H$32.40. While we rarely wish failure on a film, this would be an acception. We didn't anticipate it actually would be a mild failure (compared t0 the first), which is why we held it long.

So there you have it. We just did not pick too well this last week. Soon we have the chance to gamble big on Jonas Brothers 3D Concert Experience.... who we kidding, this movie's going to be huge!! After that, Race to Witch Mountain - ooeeeeooo! Also keep your eyes peeled for the sequel IPO to the imaginary movie TinTin!

Yes. We're still trying to delist.

2009-02-05T17:16:00.006-05:00

We have two, count 'em TWO openers this weekend. Let's get right into it, shall we?

First up, let's talk about the indie kid feature Coroline which is from the creative genius that brought us A Nightmare Before Christmas!

We're pretty psyched about how awesome this style of animation looks, but sadly we had to finally switch our long to a short.

Focus Features is a fine production company, but even with the 3D gimmick, we're not sure that this is the kid flick that the younglings will be flocking too. Adult interest will help, but we're only looking at 8 million and that makes it a short.

A film that many parents will hope is short is the unwanted sequel Pink Panther 2. Not even bothering with a silly addon to the title, the Inspector is back after the first film opened to 20 million in pretty much the same time slot two years ago. Going on to eventually find just north of 82 million, a sequel was pretty much inevitable.

With Coroline and even Hotel for Dogs and Inkheart still stalking some theatres, I don't think the Pink Panther sequel will open quite as well. Still, even a prediction of 18 million will still make this security a long. And if it DOES break out, we certainly want to be on the winning side.

We've sadly been sticking around the 87 million mark for a while now. Hopefully we can bust free, and get ourselves one step closer to delist this weekend.

If not, we still have some great features to look forward to. First: The Blockbuster Warrents will cash out on President's Day weekend. Then: Wall-E will hopefully win it's Oscar for Best Original Screenplay. Oh, and apparently the Jonas Brothers have a concert movie coming out soon too.

Oh, by the way. We didn't really do a good job of a post-adjust post this week. Inkheart did turn out to be a short, so that's good. We kind of screwed up the post-adjust holdings for it and Hotel for Dogs, so that's why you only see radar shares of them now.

Hotel Us Some Good News!

2009-01-22T08:58:00.004-05:00

Wrong! We got it wrong! We've been doing so well, so close to delisting this fund, and we get it wrong. What went wrong? Who would pay money to see cute puppies?? On that note, who would pay money to see Paul Blart?? I know it rhymes with "fart," but really.

Hard numbers: Hotel for Dogs made a troubling $22.5M adjusting the stock up to H$49.5. Like all January releases, this is most likely a post adjust short. There's just too much coming out this month for anything to have good legs. Monday confirmed it with a $700k BO take.

It's okay. Despite this setback, we're still lumbering towards delist. We also have an opener next weekend - Inkheart (INKHT). Despite what all signs point to, it's not a Walden film. Who knew!? More on Inkheart later.

UPDATE...

Qale here. So you wanna know what we think of Inkheart. Well, despite tracking doing us no good with Hotel for Dogs, we have to remember that this past MLK weekend was gigantic! Much larger than it normally is!

Now we're back to the regular pace of things, we got a sub-par generic fantasy film coming out whose release was delayed A WHOLE YEAR! That's right, we were supposed to get this flick last year. Tracking says low teens, I tend to agree... 11 million. That'd put adjust right at 29.70 which makes this in our estimation a short.

Hopefully.

We've got opening mov... OH ITSA CWUTE LIDDLE PUPPY!!!

2009-01-14T17:05:00.003-05:00

After a short little break for the holidays, KIDS Fund is back to attack with a new release opening this MLK Jr weekend!

Hotel for Dogs (HTLDG) is about these kids who capitalize on the terrible housing market. They find this abandoned house, no doubt foreclosed on recently, and show it some puppy love.

The kid stars aren't household names and Lisa Kudrow and Don Cheadle are obviously only in it for the paycheck and to have a flick they can show their kids.

Dreamworks releases the flick on the heels of a very doggone good holiday release of Marley and Me, but tracking hasn't really been playing to this films good fortune.

If it achieves the middle-teens for the four day, the multiplier of only 2.2 is going to be like hitting its nose with a newspaper. I actually think the film will open even less strongly due to a potiential spoiler film I'll mention in just a moment.

We're putting this at 14 million and a short for the holiday frame.

Now. We have another film to talk about today, but it's not one that KIDS Fund is holding. I'm talking about... and let me see if I can even say it without throwing up a little in my mouth... Paul Blart: Mall Cop. No. I'm not even going to link it!

This cruddy film is sadly likely to play to some of our target audience. I'm talking the young males 12-15. It's a Happy Madison production, aka Adam Sandler's company, and it looks like total dreck. Dreck on a stick!

So why aren't we playing it? Well, mostly because we are scared it may do well and we're so inclined to short it! And then there is that deep seeded hatred we have for Adam Sandler made even more deep and even more seeded with how badly Bedtime Stories failed us last month.

KIDS Fund recommends instead that we all just ignore it and hope it goes away.

Merry If-Mass

2009-01-02T07:59:00.005-05:00

Christmas has come and gone, and so has a year of KIDS Fundness. Let's wrap up the last openers of the year: Marly and Me, and Adam (hack) Sandler's Bedtime Stories.

Bedtime Stories went in with a hopeful price of H$109, but with a mere $10.5M Christmas and another $28M over the weekend, it adjusted down significantly to H$89. If you played it right, you'll be holding this one long. It's made over $12M on Monday and Tuesday alone, and should continue to pull in good money through this weekend.

Our big winner, Marly and Me, had a decent $14M Christmas, plus another $37M on the weekend. It adjusted up big by H$36 to H$115. Way to win! Far offset the losses of Bedtime Stories, plus it has continued with $15M combined Monday and Tuesday total BO.

That's was all for the Christmas season. Kinda sad, huh? On top of that, we don't have another opener until Hotel For Dogs opens January 16th. Thanks to Qale's quick trading, we've done very well on Narnia news, so we should be making money even without new movies.

Happy New Year and Happy Trading!

Ghosts of Christmas Present

2008-12-25T16:24:00.004-05:00

Taking most people by surprise, we had some movies halt today since they arrived in theatres everywhere this Christmas Day.

As far as KIDS Fund is concerned, we're only really interested in two of them: Marley & Me (MARLY), Bedtime Stories (BEDTM).

We at one time had Marley short, but the stubborn dog movie kept going up and up. Fortunately we adjusted our position once things really started heating up and have 400k in profits to show for it.

Very-very-very early word has it that Marley is kicking ass and taking names despite a campaign by vandals to spoil an important plot point of the film

As for Adam Sandler, Colin and I's boycot of his films nonewithstanding, we decided it'd be best to long Bedtime Stories. Unsure of exactly how well the film would do, a long position is typically safer than shorting something that can possibly break out big.

On a Walden-Hatey note: Disney recently backed out of co-producing the third Narnia film (NARN3) and we were right there ready to kick dirt in Walden's eyes with a short position. While we really hate to see hottie Ben Barnes cry, we have to admit, sobbing only makes him look that much hotter.

Finally, despite the always appealing Jonas Brothers starring in the picture, we only have a radar share of the recently IPOed Walter the Farting Dog (WFDOG).

Tales of Desperation

2008-12-20T13:25:00.003-05:00

On Friday, Tales of Desperadeux made a mere 4 million dollars. Early estimates have it at around 13 million for the weekend which would make it a short albeit a relatively small one. Sadly this makes two losses in a row for us, but thankfully they are both kinda minor as compared to our delicious holdings in the mega-popular Twilight franchise.

Besides, the Holiday season is upon us and we still have Bedtime Stories to enjoy. Here's to hoping we can squeak out about 20 more million and delist before our year anniversary!

It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas.

2008-12-18T17:31:00.005-05:00

While last weekend's Delgo was a complete disaster, it was such a tiny disaster, we didn't even feel it fall off the face of the earth with its...

WORST WIDE OPENING OF ALL-TIME.

Ick! Talk about your lump of coal.

Moving on to bigger though perhaps not necessarily better things, this weekend we see the opening of Not Another Rat Movie. Otherwise known as The Tale of Desperaux (TDSPR), this flick has been experiencing a dip with its stock price for a while now.

Part of that has been due to the omni-present tracking that placed the film squarely in the mid-teens range. Part of that is many many films have been adjusting down lately and that makes everyone gun shy.

The ads aren't very engaging, especially as compared to Bedtime Stories (BEDTM) and there is that whole weird rat thing going on that came up with last year's Ratatouille.

We feel that this animated flick will open soft and then do quite well for itself as the younglings are out of school for the rest of the year. Put it at around 16 million and call it a day. That still makes it a short from it's current as of this writing price of 48 bucks and some change, so the security may need some careful watching before halt to make sure we're on the right side of the adjust.

In other news: We only could find one itsy bitsy little Nominoption for this year. All of our hopes and dreams are riding on Wall-E scoring a nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay. (N9OWA) Good luck lil' guy. We're counting on you.

Win Some, Lose Some

2008-11-25T15:07:00.005-05:00

Okay KIDS Fund Watchers - we have good news and bad news.

Bad news first. No wait, I'd rather you experience the disappointment we did. Good new first!

Twilight was majorly front loaded. $35M on Friday, $21M Saturday, and $12M Sunday. This was the pattern we had hoped for. Bolt was a stupid short, which we called right. Not sure if it was Twilight, or just the fact that it ran out of advertising money some time in August, but bottom line is it had a sad $26M weekend and its Blockbuster Warrant (don't know what this is? you're missing out on easy money!) is now worthless.

Bad news time! Twilight was majorly front loaded, but the end result was still a long with a $69M weekend. This is surprising for Summit Entertainment, whose next biggest money-maker was Never Back Down with a total of $24M, followed by Fly Me to the Moon (3D) at $12M. What a gold mine! Someone at Summit is getting a big promotion for securing book rights early on.

But wait! There is more good news to wash away the foul taste of bad news. We have played everything pretty well post adjust (with a dry kids market, look for these to be making good money over the Thanksgiving weekend) as well as picked up Twilight 2 (Bad Moon Rising). We are a mere cold cash or two away from crossing H$70M and getting that elusive delist.

Sadly Thanksgiving is not kiddie movie time. Neither is the following weekend. After that we have Desperaux and Yes Man (I think we can play that one. Qale?). Happy trading!

(Qale edit: As goofy as Jim Carrey is, I think Yes Man is not quite kiddy enough for us. While we probably could get away with it, I'd rather say NO to Yes Man and focus more on Adam Sandler's "Bedtime Stories." Did I just say that? Oh crap!)

Double Creature Feature

2008-11-20T11:25:00.007-05:00

Well here we are, perched on the edge of one of the likely hardest weekends KIDS Fund has to predict in quite some time.

What will happen when Walt Disney's Bolt enters the market where Madagascar currently rules along side Bond, James Bond?

How exactly big will the teen vampire love story Twilight open?

For answers to these questions and more, keep reading. It's going to be a bumpy ride.

Let's start with the zero to hero story of Bolt. Some of the things this feature has going for it are the following:

1. Walt Disney

2. Digital 3D

3. 3500+ screens

4. Hannah Montana

What doesn't it have going for it?

1. Tracking not so great.

2. Stiff competition from not just Madagascar's 3rd weekend, but surprisingly Twilight.

3. John Travolta

The stock price took quite a tumble for a while, but has recently made back up some ground. Still, KIDS Fund doesn't think Bolt has what it takes to be a big breakout hit right off the bat for Disney. This one will likely open middling and then play extremely well for most of the holidays. (Or at least until Marley and Me, the next doggie flick to come out.)

We predict somewhere around 41-43 for Bolt.

(Colin thinks I'm a little low here, so take that for what you will.)

Oh, Edward, you're so sexy with your shirt off, your fangs out, and your birds nest you call hair. Okay, not really so much my cup of tea, but apparently he and the rest of the fanglings in Twilight is causing Hannah Montana Best of Both Worlds Concert Movie in 3D type fangirl hype. Midnight screenings have been selling out over the last couple of weeks and the stock price keeps rising higher and higher.

Thankfully we saw what was happening and changed our short position way back at 128 and some change a share. Can you believe the stock price is at the time of my writing this nearly 176 dollars a share? That translates to an opening of 62 million dollars.

62 MILLION DOLLARS!

To tell you the truth, we've become mighty frightened of Edward and his pointy-toothed friends. Sure he -claims- he won't suck our blood, but we certainly don't want to be covered in red come Sunday.

So what does Twilight have going for it?

1. EXTREME presales for Midnight showings.

2. Teenage (mostly girl) hype.

3. Virtually empty market for romance since Bond didn't get his groove on that much.

4. 3200+ screens. The largest amount by Summit Entertainment yet!

And the downside?

1. Probable EXTREME frontloading.

2. May not appeal to anyone not a teen or tween.

3. It's Summit Entertainment.

We know, it's a tough call. Everyone is pretty much going to ride this security out until the last possible moment before making the tough, but I think obvious call. Twilight is being fueled by an irrational hype machine at this point and will not support these kinds of numbers being the type of film that is prodominately only aiming at young girls ages 11-17.

Twilight is a short. How huge of a short will depend on how much more the midnight numbers tonight prop up the price even further.

I predict it'll make around 53-56 million dollars or possibly even lower which is still a hell of a lot more than it deserves.

Madagascar 2: Madder than Ever

2008-11-11T18:07:00.003-05:00

Actually, that title would be perfect if we had called the weekend wrong, but we didn't! Once again KIDS Fund comes out on top and when you toss that in with post adjust winnings, we now stand at just under $63M.

On to specifics: Madagascar 2 (MADG2)made $63.1M on the weekend and an another $5M on Monday. Like most kids movies, this one will probably be a post adjust long, although the usual "I'm getting rid of this stupid stock" Monday drop has/will occur, but it should fall into a comfortable level for a delist up.

If you cared to keep score, the Chihuahua movie delisted at a measly H$78, and City of Embers dropped off the game at only H$7.22. Not all kids movies make money, sadly, but we still got our kicks out of them.

Coming up next, Twilight - that insane sensation that's sure to break all sorts of obscure records!

Escape from the Mundane

2008-11-06T23:00:00.003-05:00

It's been a rather exciting day for us over here at KIDS Fund. Here's what we've been up to lately:

Madagascar 2 comes out Friday. It's a pretty long awaited sequel and the youngest of the kiddies haven't had a film in quite some time. A family friendly flick that isn't called High School Musical 3 should be pretty welcome. Tracking has it in the mid 50's and some prediction sites even suggest 60 is doable. Considering we're not too keen on shorting something that could have a high upside, we're calling this one a long.

Speaking of High School Musical, it's daily numbers have been pretty impressive even though teens are in school. We think things could really keep going for this thing, and have adjusted our delist possibilities to the upper 80s.

Twilight is looming on the horizon. This vampire love story has really caused us a lot of trouble in the past, but we're finally starting to read the writing on the wall. With Notfabio reporting that presales are out pacing High School Musical and many screenings are already sold out, we're confidently going long on this security. We just hope the hype doesn't end up biting us on the butt on the way yet again.

Finally, one of the easiest ways to make money is back: Holiday Warrants! We're lucky enough to snag several of these puppies. Bedtime Stories, Bolt, Madagascar 2, Tale of Desperadeux, and the aforementioned Twilight!

Happy trading!

Orange you glad we're going back?

2008-10-28T22:25:00.003-04:00

Maaaaybe we aren't going anywhere after all. This was posted this evening on the Forums of the new HSX.com:

Submitted by spinfactor on Tue, 10/28/2008 - 17:55.
Dear Loyal HSXers,

You spoke (yelled, screamed, voodoo lambada cursed), and, we listened....

We're restoring HSX Classic. The trusty old site will be back up in the next day (knock on wood) with your portfolios as they were before we switched over, (brought up-to-date with adjusts and delists). Itʼs kinda like time travel, but you won't be watching Krakatoa erupt 500 miles away, on a beach... with a daiquiri.

We'll spend more time clearing out the bugs and adding the features to make the new HSX a worthy successor... and learning from your feedback, we'll make the transition to the new site gradual, when it's ready for prime time. The beta site will run side-by-side to HSX Classic so give it a chance at http://beta.hsx.com over the coming months and help us make it the exchange you've been looking for.

You, the HSX Community are the reason we come into work every morning... We hope you'll keep trading and continue to let us know how we are doing!

Thanks!

- The HSX Team

So, if that's the case, looks like you'll just have to go back to looking here for the latest information on your favorite fund.
Personally, I think it is the bestest news evar.

Just for completion's sake. Here's a quick summary of what we posted on the blog over there:

1. High School Musical is gonna be a total long!
2. High School Musical had an awesome Friday!
3. High School Musical ended up a tragic short due to bad multiplier.
4. We think we're gonna do at least an immediate post-adjust short. Next weekend's numbers should set the tone.
5. Jungle Book and Tarzan remakes? DO WANT

See you at the Orange Site

2008-10-27T17:05:00.002-04:00

Now that HSX has blogs as a part of their website, we can send you over to there to view what we have to say and earn H$ doing it! That actually in turn gives YOU back H$ so it's a win/win situation!

Visit our KIDS Fund blog on HSX itself at this address.

WAT?

2008-10-21T20:34:00.007-04:00

WAT?

No.

Seriously. WAT?

With the new version of HSX finally back on after a week of downtime, loyal and hard working KIDS Fund managers Colin and Qale were greeted with this unweildly monostrocity of a portfolio screen.

Here's the bad news: We have no idea how to use it, so we'll be learning as we go.

Here's the good news: We seem to be up from where we were before the site took a nose dive last Tuesday. We're a bit more than halfway toward delist!

Oh and High School Musical 3 comes out Friday.

Let's talk about HISM3 for a moment here. We're holding it long and we think you should too. Maybe this juggernaught won't be the biggest opening October (55 million, Scary Movie 3) that I think it'll be. But what if it is. That'd adjust the stock to 154 and some change, a good deal higher than where it's priced currently at 136.55.

And let's imagine for a brief moment that it not only gets the new record for October, but also goes what they liked to call back on the old Movies Board NUCLEAR LONG! Do you really want to be on the wrong side of that potiential upward drive?

So go ahead old fogeys. Complain about KIDS today with their pogo sticks, their Zac Efrons, and their new HSX 2.0s. But don't take the risk in shorting what could be something very very big.

Oh, you want my prediction. 63 million. On the nose.

The World Ends With You

2008-10-09T17:59:00.005-04:00

This weekend a new Walden production is going to be released. No one will care and it won't make any more money than most of their releases.

Despite an interesting concept and Bill Murray, "City of Ember" CEMBR is currently priced at to make about 6 million.

That's pretty much where it should be priced, as we predict 5-7 million. Not so much of a play right now then.

In other news: Beverly Hills Taco Bell BHCHI has gone up since the adjust. People think that it'll have legs, but we're not so sure. Unlike last year's Alvin and the Chipmunks, we're in early October and legginess isn't assured.

We're staying the course for the moment, but will take another look at things once the Fri-to-Fri (or more appropriately for kid flicks Sat-to-Sat) numbers to see how things may turn out for the delist multiplier on the dog.

Finally: HSX 2.0 is coming. From D. Mac, "we will need to shut down the whole site in order to migrate all the data to the new site. We plan to begin the process on Tuesday and relaunch the new site on Thursday. "

So this is something we need to be aware for next week.

Otherwise, things have been moving really well lately in a positive direction. Glad you've stuck with us and we'll shout at you again soon!

Finally - A Movie With Some Teeth!

2008-10-03T13:44:00.003-04:00

That's right, we're talking about that box office miniature monster Beverly Hills Chihuahua (BHCHI)!!!

Awww, who am I kidding. No matter how I paint this movie, there's nothing more disgusting to me than this waaay late Taco-Bell nonsense. However, we at the KIDS Fund feel that it will make money and we are in the business of making money for you, even if it means longing .... this. With tracking in the mid-20s for some time now, and our friend Igor (IGOR) putting around under the radar, this really could be a huge movie. Time will tell.

Speaking of little Igor, this film managed (much to my suprise) to squeak out a $5.2 million weekend in its second week. Impressive. Numbers have not dropped that much, and with two more good weekends to go, it has a chance of making its price. This is what we get in a dried up kids market.

That's all I got for now. This is Space Man Awesome Colin for the KIDS Fund - AWAY!!

The Happy Hunchback

2008-09-24T09:02:00.002-04:00

Well, not so happy if he understood box office takes - Igor (IGOR) took in a mere $7.8 million. While this was slightly higher than our predicted $5 - $7 million, it still meant a short from H$25.06 to H$22.43 on a slightly inflated $8.1 million predicted weekend. Igor then went on to rake in a paltry $282K. Ha ha! Weinsteins fail again!

What does this mean for us?

Tiny picture: more money, plus playing Igor long for the time being, although $21 million seems a bit unrealistic considering we have some more kids movies coming soon (more on that in a sec).

Big picture: we're very close to H$50 million, getting us just a little closer to delist. We were hoping to delist in under a year and, while that may seem a bit unrealistic, remember that Christmas season is coming with a great lineup of films like, uh... Despereaux (TDSPR)...and... uh.. well. Anyway, we'll keep making money. And I gotta tell you, Qale just gets better the more Hcash he's got to play with - so never fear, we will delist soon!

Coming up this weekend: Beverly *urp* Hills *blech* Chihuahua *hurl* (BHCHI). As much as I hate to say it, this movie is set to make some serious money and has already make the fund H$800K.

Stay tuned for a preview of how the KIDS Fund will play it - entirely in Spanish!

At your service.

2008-09-17T03:12:00.006-04:00

After a few more weeks of not having any openers to play with, KIDS Fund comes limping slowly with a hunchback with Igor (IGOR).

Currently, the marketplace is flooded with all sorts of types of sub-par releases. There are flicks for chicks, movies for men who love movies, and this weekend, even a film for self loathing people who want to injure themselves with a Dane Cook "comedy".

But won't someone think of the children?

That being said, Igor isn't exactly going to have an easy time making bank for itself and by extention us.

As long time followers of KIDS Fund, you already know our seething hatred for all things Walden. Typically, they take a fine selling children's novel and then destroy it with a lackluster movie that often doesn't make any money.

Well Igor has a similar problem. It's being released by The Weinstein Co.

Now, I actually kind of like the distributer. They often produce films that very few others would even dare to touch. But, ask yourself, when was the last time you can remember them putting out a kid flick?

Exactly.

Tracking hasn't been very good either. NotFabio (our own personal box office guru, so to speak) recently posted it listed with the number 8 beside it. Yeah, 8 million. Certainly in line with what many films are making these days opening weekend, but not really something worth writing home to Master about.

Currently hovering around 30 bucks a share, HSXers seem to be slightly more optimistic.

Originally I was thinking closer to 13-15 for the animated feature in a box office completely devoid of anything for the kiddies, but I think I'm starting to see the light. It's September. It's Weinstien. And, well, even with their "Halloween comes early" push, it feels much more likely that Igor is liable to fall flat on his face than soar to the skies. Maybe kids will just have to wait until Beverly Hill's Chihuahua (BCHI)comes out Oct 3rd to get back to the silver screened babysitter.

So with that, we're marking our predictions down and calling this one 5-7 million and a short.

In other news: Recently, Disney called off their 5pm Thursday afternoon showings for High School Musical 3 (HISM3). While I still haven't found anywhere the reason that may be, it certainly changes our feelings on the October opener.

History told us that anything that early would be added to the weekend multiplier, not multiplied (Pirates 3). And with the property so hot, we figured that'd take a serious chunk of change out of what the price should be. This not being the case anymore, we're willing to bet there is a lot more upside to this stock than down. The largest October opening weekend of just a hair under 50 million set by Scary Movie 3 may be in trouble.

You can't spell FUND without F-U-N

2008-09-05T10:46:00.006-04:00

The KIDS Fund would like to congradulate the Studio Funds for another mostly successful year. A few of the studios did far beyond what could be imagined and are indicitive of some really great trading by professional managers.

Studio Funds are limited from the start.

They not only start with 10 Million in seed money as opposed to the usual 20, they can only invest in properties that are related to the studio they represent. They annually delist in the fall and relist over a period of time immediately after.

Because they don't have a set goal of 100 million, I can only imagine it's more of a reach for the stars type ambition that keeps them going.

So once again, congradulations to the Studio Fund managers. Great trading!

Not by a Longshot

2008-08-27T08:57:00.003-04:00

NOTE: The movie pictured to the left is not The Longshots...it is awesome.

The Longshots (LNGSH) did about as well as a Fred Durst directed movie could. It quietly pulled in $4M and, while I would say that there is justice in the world, the surprise hit of the summer, The House Bunny, raked in $14M totally negating that stupid theory. For KIDS fund, this means soaring to new heights and nearing the mid-century mark with our incredibly smrts that directed us towards holding LNGSH short as well as SWTCW continuing to drop like Lucas' popularity.

So where will The Shortshots be going from here? Monday's numbers indicated a mere $300K, and with theaters inevitably dropping this film as soon as possible, I don't expect even those numbers to hold. So Qale can't criticize my fuzzy math, I'm not going to show my work and give a 4 week total of $9.6M. Obviously a short, but if you didn't get it before, not really worth picking up on now.

Sadly, September is a little slow, with nothing until Igor (IGOR) mid-month. Thanks to the loyal KIDS Funders who keep sticking by - we're steadily growing and are mildly hopeful about delisting by year's end.

Longshots enters crowded market.

2008-08-21T21:23:00.006-04:00

Dunno if anyone has noticed, but KIDS Fund has been on a winning streak lately. Perhaps the lack of Fundcasts have forced us to focus more on making good decisions?

Nah. I think it's just that the flicks that have been coming out lately have been easy to decide if they were short or long.

Last weekend we correctly guessed that Star Wars: The Clone Wars ( SWTCW ) was going to be a complete disaster. It turned out to open even lower than our predictions bringing us even more cash. Post adjust hasn't been too kind to the flick either, so we'll continue holding it short until the value starts looking more sensible.

This week we have an opener that kind of snuck up on us in The Longshots. (LNGSH )It's a family friendly football film about a girl who gets to play with the boys' pigskin. Wait. That didn't sound right. What I meant to say is it's a flick about gender equality that few people are going to see. There sadly(?) isn't a big market for this type of fluff and so we're predicting a rather soft 4-6 million opening for the Ice Cube and Fred Durst film.

September currently looks empty for us, so it'll be a challenge to keep that graph going in the positive direction. But thankfully October has a potiential huge cash cow in High School Musical 3. (HISM3)

Good luck and happy trading.

Contempt we feel for Star Wars cartoon.

2008-08-14T22:34:00.006-04:00

Probably strictly only for the youngest viewers along with fanboys still suckling at the massive teet of George Lucas, Star Wars: The Clone Wars (SWTCW) is being released in theatres tomorrow.

The price has taken a serious nosedive from when Colin shorted it back at 81.42 making us some seriously needed cash.

But the question is, should we remain short on the project?

Early reports from advance sales guru Not Fabio point to an opening similar to TMNT, but I question that this cheep looking cartoon can make 23 million in this market.

Older teen boys have other options. Tropic Thunder and Mirrors this week and hold overs like Pineapple Express and even The Dark Knight still linger.

KIDS Fund has been on a roll lately getting several openers right. Hopefully, we can keep things going with a continued short on this subpar Star Wars project. We're predicting 15-17 million making the adjust somewhere near 45 dollars per share.

In other news: Harry Potter 6 (HPOT6), which we weren't holding, was moved to next July taking the magic out of this holiday season. While the move will no doubt help Disney's Bolt BOLT and The Tale of Despereaux (TDSPR), we're so disappointed we have to wait another year almost for the newest Potter flick.

The Mummy: Tanks

2008-08-06T11:36:00.004-04:00

Ah, those dreaded "third installments." The Mummy 3 (MUMY3) was no exception, bringing in an unimpressive $40.4 million over the weekend. This is even less than the estimated $42.45 million that HSX used to adjust the stock down slightly to H$118.86. Hey, mummy money!

Where is this stock going to wander? Here's my thoughts:

Key: Week: Mon #, Tues #, Wed #, Thurs #, Weekend # = Week #/Total #

2: 4, 3, 3, 4, 22 = 36/76

3: 2, 2, 2, 3, 15 = 24/100

4: 1, 1, 2, 2, 12 = 18/118

Huh. $118 million. So, not much change. Worth hanging on to all H-cabbage that for the H$8 it will get you in a few weeks? I'll let you decide...

(QALE UPDATE: I don't agree with this fuzzy math at all. Mummy 3 made 40 million in the first weekend and is likely to drop about 60%. The drops won't start evening out until maybe week 3 or 4. I think it'll be more like upper 80's low 90's for delist.)

New movie time!! And look, it's a sequel. To a movie nobody really saw to begin with. Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 (STPN2) It's currently priced at around H$49. That number has to be adjusted by the following formula [Previous Box Office + (2.8*Box Office Fri-Sun)]. Uh huh. The first one opened to a $10 million weekend, and was at a mere $33 million after week 4. I give this a generous opening weekend of $12 million, since there aren't a lot of movies out right now for the 9 - 12 year old girl crowd. That means it would have to rake in more than that (over $15 million) on Wednesday and Thursday to break even. Even if you bump it up a few more million, you're still looking at needing to take in almost the weekend's worth of BO in just two weekdays.

KIDS stance: WE LIKE SHORT SHORTS!!!

That's all for now. Come back soon to see how we did and get more ramblings about box office predictions and see how wrong we really are capable of being.

The Mummy Returns, Different Mummy Though.

2008-07-30T21:26:00.005-04:00

Back in May of 2001, Mr. Fraser enjoyed a huge blockbuster opening of 60+ million for The Mummy Returns. Now, over seven years and not May later, Mr. Fraser already has one action flick out and is poised to unleash another Mummy film. Will it also open to 60+ million?

Current trading signs point to no. HSX Traders as of this post put the new film (which also stars Jet Li, yum) at a 46 million dollar debut.

Why the low ball number?

A couple of reasons come to mind: It's August not May. It's been 7 years. And last weekend X-Files 2 really stunk up the joint. Oh, and The Dark Knight is still kicking massive box office booty.

Still, we here at KIDS Fund have always been bullish on the Brendan. While we weren't so confident that a 3-D Journey to the Center of the Earth remake would work all that well (Mostly because we hate Walden, duh), there is nothing in this world that would make us not believe in the always relevant Mummy franchise. The fact that this one sports a three-headed dragon and yeti is just a bonus!

UPDATE: Well there is something that could squash our hopes. Absolutely bargain basement reviews and no one showing up for midnights. This changes things. We're now thinking mid-30s and possibly Dark Knight taking a third weekend on top.

Everything is better with monkeys.

2008-07-15T17:21:00.007-04:00

As usual, things didn't go according to plan this past weekend with our "Short 'em all" decision to hold the trio of kid-flicks.

Hellboy 2 and Journey to the Center of the Earth both performed about 5 million above our predictions and brought misery upon the port. This was even in spite of Eddie Murphy providing us with a delicious bomb ripe for the shorting.

Such as life, and we naturally think all three are post-adjust shorts, however Journey sure isn't acting like it in the early going this week. Don't worry about it. Brendan won't be able to keep up the momentum and the 3-D gimmick will look mighty stupid as the Mummy 3 ad campaign continues to roll out.

So moving on to this upcoming weekend...

While we'd simply LOVE to play us some Dark Knight, the restart of the legendary Batman is certainly not for the younglings. The hueg like X-BOX stock price also doesn't exactly make it really something viable either.

Fortunately, we don't have to sit this weekend out though. We have monkeys!!

SPCHM - Space Chimps is providing a hint of counter-programming for the youngest set. Currently priced to make 9.5 million, obviously traders aren't expecting much from the animated flick. Tracking recently posted by the fabulous notfabio pointed to 5 million and we kind of like that number. (Actually, we kind of like lower than that number.)

Also some news of note: We actually have a bond adjusting sometime in the near future now. Little Miss Sunshine herself (ABRES)was in the failed Kit Kittridge and that sets her up for a drop of around 6 points as of this posting. Sadly her career (and by relation her TAG) is heading down, down, down as the films she starring in has dropped lower with each release.

Finally, I know we keep promising you, the loyal fans and shareholders a new episode of the Fundcast. There are so many reasons why we haven't done another recently. Here are but a few:

1. Colin's -ahem- busier than he used to be.
2. Qale's more broke than he used to be.
3. When you've gone nude, where else is there to go?
4. ????
5. Lack of Profit!!!

She Was An American Girl...

2008-07-08T17:00:00.003-04:00

...who underperformed on the 4th of July weekend. However, being your brilliant KIDS Fund managers, we shorted AMGRL and made mondo-profit for you - our supporters and fans.

Total weekend was a mere $3.6 million, with a $2.5 million previous, resulting in a downward adjust of H$21.98. At the time of this post, the stock is at H$13.78 (up a little), but I doubt it will even make that. If you longed it, time to move on. If you shorted, might as well sit on it.

Next weekend: lots of KIDS openers!! Let's get to the predictions, shall we?

Hellboy 2 (HELB2)

First Hellboy opened to $23 million, and only made it to $59 million total. Not shabby, but I doubt the 2nd will have much more support than the first. Currently priced to make $31 million opening weekend, it's looking like a slight short at the moment. KIDS prediction: $27 - 30 million.

Journey to the Center of the Earth (JCNTR)

It's Walden. If you recall past Fundcasts, you'll realize that without Disney, Walden does not make money. Currently priced to make $17.5 million, that's still too much for this dud. KIDS prediction: $12 - 15 million.

Meet Dave (MDAVE)

Eddie Murphey made stupid amounts of money with his smash-hit, February release film "Norbit." Almost $95 million total in the dead months. However, he also had the amazing failure of "The Adventure of Pluto Nash," which traded as high as H$84 at one point, despite only making $4.4 million total. Insane. I have a feeling we're setting up for another big loser. Currently priced to make $14.3 million opening weekend, I'd say for the third time we're looking at a slight short to a wash. KIDS prediction: $11 - 14 million.

So that's how KIDS stands: short 'em all, and let HSX sort 'em out. Happy trading!

No Money for Wall-E, Sadly

2008-06-30T13:25:00.002-04:00

You people disgust me.

All year long we're flooded with moronic, plotless trash, and a ~~good~~ great movie finally comes along and all you can eek out is a $62 million box office? Encourage good film making!

And not to mention the KIDS Fund once again lost some cash on this rather large short, which means you hurt yourself by not going to see Wall-E this weekend. Now, I have no doubt this will be a substantial post-adjust long, as I don't think too many kids (or adults) are chomping at the bit for another Walden disaster.

The moral of the story: help yourself on the post-adjust and go see a wonderful film.

Up soon: Another Fundcast!

Gone Fishin?

2008-06-23T17:19:00.005-04:00

So Colin's been out of the area and otherwise busy lately. Normally I'd take up the camera myself and do another episode all by my lonesome, but, well, considering my last singular effort is the lowest viewed episode we've done so far...

Hopefully we'll be able to get back to making quality efforts that you come to expect from your KIDS Fundcast of characters. We aren't giving it up just yet!!

Let's talk about a few openers we have coming up.

WALE Currently priced to require one of the highest Pixar openers of all-time, opens this Friday. The ads are so adorably cute and have really started to incorporate more of the human elements to ease fears that the film is mostly a wordless affair. Even though this baby will have to do as well as Finding Nemo to adjust up, there is no way I'm shorting a Pixar effort. Considering also that Kung Fu Panda has pretty much ruled the box office alone, we could beat Nemo here. Why not? I'm giving the cutie pie robot 70 million plus.

AMGRL Kit Kittridge opened in limited format this past weekend. And boy were they sneaky. Charging 20 bucks and giving out t-shirts and calling it all box office. Naughty naughty! The flick expands this weekend, but I don't imagine it doing anything up against the power-house that is Wall-E. It's target audience is young girls and now that the five market the American Girl stores have now been served, there is nowhere else for this thing to go. I give it less than 5 million for this upcoming weekend.

HAROL opens on July 11th. It has Cuba Gooding and one of the ubiquitous Brenslin kids. Not really much is known about this entity, including the production company or distributer I guess. At least neither is listed on HSX. Considering that we haven't heard anything about it, we aren't currently playing it. Priced at just under 5 bucks a share, traders appearently don't know what to do with it either. So we're likely just going to skip it.

That's all we have for now. We'll get Episode 11 of the KIDS Fundcast out, hopefully immedately following Wall-E. Maybe do some post-adjust fun with the stock and get back in the swing of things for the first of the two Brenden Fraser movies due out this summer: JCNTR!

Skedoosh!

2008-06-11T09:05:00.005-04:00

Kung Fu Panda lost us money and it's all my fault! With a $60M opening weekend, it had a slight upward adjust, but I left it shorted. On top of that, it made an additional $6M on Monday. If it continues to keep up those numbers, it should easily pass its current (as of this post) price of H$163.59 over the next four weeks. We fully anticipate it to keep bringing in the kids and cash though, as the last truly kid-marketed movie was Speed Racer, and we won't have another until Wall-E on June 27th... which is why it's now longed in the fund.

Speaking of Wall-E, it's still bargain priced at H$183.21. I'm not sure if it's a lack of confidence in the market or what, but kids movies do well, especially in an adult-film (as in, target demographic, pervs) heavy summer lineup. Here's why I think it's under priced:

-Next kid movie coming out after Wall-E is Journey to the Center of the Earth. And that's Walden. We all know what that means.
-It's Pixar. Cars, which in my crazed mind was the worst film they've made so far, opened June 9th 2006 and grossed $60M its opening weekend, and was at $182M by the 4th weekend. Ratatouille opened this time last year at $47M, but it was a bit of a tough concept to get moviegoers into the theater.
-That robot is so cute!!! What soulless creature wouldn't want to see this movie?

That's all for now. Should be a new Fundcast coming soon, so keep checking in.

Happy trading!

Fundcast Episode 10

2008-06-02T09:28:00.006-04:00

Episode: 10?ZOMG!!

Welcome KIDS Funders! Welcome to the fabulous episode 10 - full of mirth, fun, and adventure. Join us as we celebrate our recent success with Indiana Jones 4, and as we gird our loins for another potential flop in Kung Fu Panda.

INDY4 Scores!!

2008-05-27T13:58:00.003-04:00

Look what we found, KIDS Fund faithful - money! That win we've needed so badly to get us out of the unfortunate slump.

Indiana Jones sweeps the weekend with an impressive $151 million Thursday through Friday. With only a 2.2 multiplier, this stock should easily surpass it's current price of H$289 in the next four weeks, despite what the movement today is telling you.

Coming in 2nd, but far far behind, was Prince Caspian at $29 million for the four day weekend, bringing its total up to $96.6 million in week two.

Chugging along (he's going the distance, he's going for speed) is Speed Racer with the 5th spot overall. With a three week total of $37.4 million and a current stock price of just over H$39, there's no reason SR shouldn't make a few more bucks in the next week before delist. Not quite worth the cost of commish if you don't already have it longed though.

That's all for now. We've got a few more big money makers this summer, including Kung Fu Panda and Wall-E. Happy trading!

Episode 9: KIDS Fundcast

2008-05-18T13:46:00.002-04:00

Kids Fundcast - Episode 9
by hsxkidsfund

Check out "Later, Skater" by Jonathan Sexton aka Qale!

Qale goes at it alone in this stellar edition of the Fundcast. What will happen when the master is away? Well, I CAN tell you that it will involve Indiana Jones 4 and likely some Colin bashing. Enjoy!

If you need me, I'll be inside the wardrobe.

2008-05-17T20:13:00.002-04:00

Oh goodie. Another post about what was supposed to be a big huge opening and turns out to be absolutely crap.

Sure, Prince Caspian didn't technically bomb as much as Speed Racer did, but considering it didn't open as large as the original and we lost a whole lot of H$ on a big adjust down...

I'm so annoyed... So so annoyed.

Moviegoers miss out on something epic.

2008-05-12T17:41:00.008-04:00

Look.

I don't want to write this post.

Really I don't.

It's one thing to lose a lot of H$ in making a bad call on an adjusting movie, but it's another thing entirely losing a lot of H$ on an adjusting movie because it should not have flopped as badly as Speed Racer managed to this past weekend.

What's even worse is that the movie is amazing. It's epic in every sense of the word. It takes anime to this modern day level that is so stellar and so fascinating that apparently it made itself inaccessible to those who would rather see Iron Man again. Which is what movie critics in between the crappiest of car puns possible told moviegoers to do. Whatever.

Speed Racer bombed this weekend, okay? It should have made 40 million. The studio was hoping for 35. And it didn't even make 20. Somehow, in this tainted world of sorrow and unhappiness, America allowed Ashton Kutcher and Cameron Diaz's flick beat it this weekend. What a tragedy that like Final Fantasy before it, Speed Racer will now become a rare children's cult-classic. Shame.

Post adjust is going to be abysmal as well. Just short it and forget it. If no one wanted to see this achievement in motion picture special effects wizardry now, they ain't going to want to see it next week or the week after or the week after. IMAX may pick up some slack, but not enough really.

Narnia 2 is up next. Walden paired with Disney makes for a much more compelling story than Nim's or The Dark Is Rising or whatever those Walden hacks have adapted from children's novels. Tracking has it at, like 80 million, and we'll just be riding it long hoping that some kind of weird bottom doesn't drop out of this one.

Man, I still can't get over Speed Racer's total annihilation. I'm going to go pig out on the rest of the candy leftover from the last Fundcast and cry. Later, traders.

Episode 8: KIDS Fundcast

2008-05-05T04:45:00.003-04:00

Episode 8: KIDS Fund

Episode 8 is a GO!!!! Zip your way into the world of Speed Racer and Prince Caspian, as the KIDS Fund finally starts making some serious cash with summer blockbusters!

Happy trading, kidsters!

Summer blockbusters are locked and loaded.

2008-05-02T11:31:00.005-04:00

With Iron Man hitting theatres today, that means the Summer Blockbuster Season™ is nigh! I know that our profits haven't been exactly something to write home to mum about, but it's been a rough road leading up to this point for KIDS flicks. While Miley was hot before she decided to show her ENTIRE BARE BACK OMG!!!eleven!1one! films like Spiderwick and Horton didn't exactly blow up the joint. And investing in the already bloated Summer flicks was difficult for a fledgling fund.

Well business is about to pick up.

Speed Racer with its non-stop marketing, merch, and live-action anime feel will be opening next Friday. Then, it's another week before Prince Caspian comes to visit. He's so dreamy. And to round out May, Indiana Jones comes out of retirement to tell us to get off his lawn in the fourth installment of the series.

We'll be filming our 8th episode of the Fundcast this weekend and as you may know, we're bullish on the Mach 5 beating back Racer X on May 9th. Should be entertaining be it a victory or a bloodbath.

And speaking of blood. I know the film is only in 5 theatres this weekend, but we really are pulling for an expansion of Son of Rambow. We saw the flick at the Atlanta Film Festival in a packed house and it was such a delightful and warm comedy about two boys who aim to remake the Stallone hard-R rated flick. It is magnificent and a rare film that both Colin and I agree on. Check it out!

Crouching KIDS Fund, Hidden Profits, Dual Posts

2008-04-18T10:46:00.003-04:00

For a real treat this week, both Colin and Qale are posting their fund managing thoughts. You'll get a look at how we both think, plus more information than your head can possibly hold - better get a tarp, or you'll get brain on the wall!

First up is Qale:

Hello KIDS Fund shareholders and otherwise curious kiddies, Qale here with a long awaited post about information and numbers.

Yeah, no cake eating. No kung-fu antics. Just cold hard facts. So stop crying, it's only a little boo-boo, and here we go!

This weekend Jet Chan and Jackie Li get together for a Far East fragfest called The Forbidden Kingdom. I'm sure there will be prophecy, pratfalls, and a pretty dumb white guy in between the two legends of modern day kung-fu cinema.

While I'm more partial to Jet, the kiddies like Jackie better. After all, he had his own cartoon at one time. We feel that the film can give the smackdown on the raunchy Apatow flick this weekend and land around 22 million.

Currently in Post Adjust range, Nim's Island currently has around 28 million in the bank. After being out for two weekends (last weekend making 9 million) we expect another 6 from Little Miss Sunshine this time around. Give it about 2 million for the third week and 4 million for the last weekend and it could delist at around 40 million.

Finally today, an indie kid flick? Yeah, you bet. Son of Rambow is playing at the Atlanta Film Festival tonight and Colin and I will be there on the scene! Hopefully we will get some good footage to use for our next Fundcast episode. Or we'll be told to leave. Seriously though, how can they say no to cameras at a film festival. Probably like this, "Noooooooooo!" Take care, kiddos.

And now from the illustrious Colin:

It's incredibly slow right now, but we push through it all to bring you top quality KIDS Fund predictions and news!

New movie first - The Forbidden Kingdom, currently priced at H$55.28, is the new action packed martial arts flick starring BOTH Jackie Chan AND Jet Li. Seriously, how long have we been waiting for this to happen? I can't see this movie making any less than $22 million opening weekend, perhaps more.

Old movie next - Nim's Island, currently priced at H$37.49, enters its third weekend of mediocrity taking in just under a half million each day this week. As of Wednesday, total BO was at $26.7 million. With only a 214 screen drop from last weekend, I see a $400k Thursday, $1.8 million Friday, $3.1 Saturday, and a $2.2 Sunday bringing the Monday morning total to $34.2 million. Considering the complete lack of children's movies (5 weeks in, and Horton is still pulling over $300k a day, with decent weekends), Nim's should easily make the current price, but I wouldn't count on much more profit beyond that.

Happy trading, and look to the future for the woefully underpriced Speed Racer, opening May 9th. Also keep those peepers peeled for Son of Rambow, opening limited May 2nd. We'll be bringing you screening coverage on this movie from the Atlanta Film Festival very soon.

Thats all from the KIDS Fund managers this week!! Get out there and make some (fake) money!

KIDS Fundcast Episode 7

2008-04-14T10:11:00.003-04:00

Fundcast Episode 7 - Screaming Ninja vs. Slice of Death

Gird your loins for episode 7 - SCREAMING NINJA VS. SLICE OF DEATH!!!!! One day only (er, well, it'll be here permanently) watch as these two battle to the DEAAAAAATHHHH over their favorite martial artist. Who will prevail? Will it be Jet Li and his strange wushu ways? Or Jackie Chan with his whimsical fighting stylings?? Don't miss this episode, and don't miss The Forbidden Kingdom opening this Friday!

KIDS Fundcast - Episode 6

2008-04-02T05:43:00.004-04:00

KIDS Fundcast Episode 6 - On Walden

In this edition of the KIDS Fundcast, we discover the one measly kids film opening this weekend - Nim's Island. Tempers flare and patience runs thin as we eagerly wait for the meaty summer season.

No new openers; Post adjust blues.

2008-03-29T13:17:00.005-04:00

Let's be honest. Traders are being really dumb when it comes to Horton Hears a Who. The animated Seuss flick has continued to drop and that sucks. Obviously they want to put their cash into other investments.

The film crossed 100 million last night and is now perched at 105 million dollars with the rest of this weekend, all of those weekdays, and next weekend to go.

While it may not pull in the 4 million weekdays this week, I still say we're looking at 130+ as a delist right now which is why it's so frustrating to see it fall.

Drillbit Taylor stands at 16.7 million dollars. It was starting to make some great ground on the weekdays and great showing this weekend could propel this thing further. I'm still confident this is another post-adjust long, though it apparently will have to take some time to get there. A 6 million dollar weekend will put it at nearly 20 with two more weeks to go.

And now that I've covered post-adjust, I wanna say we're filming our next episode of the KIDS Fundcast this weekend. We'll be talking about the thrill ride of the Spring, Nim's Island. The flick has been tracking in the 20 million range, (WHY?) trading in the 15 million range, and we'll throw some comedy into the the range and see what cooks.

One final note, because we've been doing really bad lately in the fund, we've decided we're going to diversify our holdings a bit today during Commission Free time. While it's common thought that you should always hold MAX shares, apparently traders do not like what we're holding MAX shares in and keep driving down those securities. They're mean doodyheads and I hate them.

Horton Hears A Pin-Drop; Drillbit matches low expectations.

2008-03-23T18:46:00.012-04:00

Easter festivities may have snatched quite a few children away from the megaplexes this weekend. In its second weekend Horton Hears a Who fell 44% from its debut to make only 25.1 million dollars. That's not very attractive for a G rated animated kiddie flick at all.

It's ground it'll have to make up during the weekdays. While possible with spring break happening all over the place, delist expectations are lowered for the Dr. Seuss film.

The other big story for KIDS Fund fanatics is the right call we made on a rare shorting of a property. Owen Wilson stars as Drillbit Taylor who is hired by a trio of wimps as a body guard. I saw the film on Friday and it's actually not nearly as bad as one would expect. There's some real funny sections even though the storyline really drags towards film's end. And the Superbad parallels aren't even hidden, really.

We expected the film to not break more than 10 million and sure enough when all was estimated this holiday weekend, Drillbit has earned 10.2 million. This puts the fund right back at getting half of our adjusts right, and half wrong. Oh mediocrity, how we love thee.

We'll post again later this week after we see how things go on the day by day. I believe there will be a further adjustment downward for Horton as people try to get a better handle on the elephant's delist. Drillbit however may find a bigger success this week as it may find some of its misplaced audience during spring break. I wouldn't necessarily short this one post-adjust out of habit.

Horton Hears Some Hope!

2008-03-20T23:00:00.004-04:00

Horton didn't hear the sweet pitter-patter of little moviegoers last weekend, but with nearly $4 million per weeknight, hope remains for good legs. With essentially no ~~good~~ children's movies out, I predict another $4 million on Thursday, and $30 million weekend putting it at around $90 million by Monday. Looks like we'll be getting pretty close to that golden $100 million mark!

10,000 BC, although no Day After Tomorrow, still has been bringing in steady bread with a $65 million box office total heading into what I assume will be a $15 million weekend. It'll be a close finish, but I doubt 10KBC will make 100M.

Finally, our new movie Drillbit Taylor opens Friday, hoping to woo over bored middle-schoolers with Owen Wilson. I don't think they've thought their plan through. If it had been Elisha Cuthbert kicking middle school butt I may have felt more than a $10 million opening weekend were in order, but all bets are off with a crook-nosed, middle aged lead. I mean, when has Owen Wilson ever carried a movie on his own?

So there it is - KIDS Fund attempts to get to .500 for the season, and we continue to make money regardless! Happy trading!

Horton Hears a Ho-Hum

2008-03-16T19:06:00.005-04:00

KIDS Fund drops to 2 wins and 3 losses as Horton Hears a Who opens well, but not good enough to keep the stock from adjusting down H$8.70.

Much boo-hooing will be had on the boards about the $45 million opening. But while it is a loss, it's not so tragic. More like a rather annoying buzz-kill.

Post adjust should be a breeze. While there will be the usual profit taking and moving of funds away from the openers by many portfolios, it's generally expected that a G rated animated kid flick like this one will do great things in the weeks ahead. Many schools will be out, and others will often plan field trips to the theatre. So we'll continue to grin and bear the red ink for a little while, in hopes that like Spiderwick before it, we can crank some profits out of this moviestock.

In other news: 10,000BC didn't drop nearly as badly as predicted. It earned an estimated 16.4 million and currently has a total of 61 million dollars. That means we'll have to adjust our delist predictions up by a couple of million. I think it's still a short, but it won't be as big of a drop off as first expected. We'll have to see how the weekday numbers this week pan out, but look for low 80's now.

The Elephant in the Room

2008-03-13T17:13:00.007-04:00

With such glaringly bad negative reviews and still not a single living person able to tell me in person they actually liked the movie, 10,000BC surprisingly adjusted up to H$100.04 on Sunday.

But what's happened since and what do we think will happen in the future?

Well... Surprisingly the weekday numbers haven't been terrible thus far for the ancient epic. 2.6 Monday, 2.3 Tuesday, and a 1.9 on Wednesday does show the film is however fading.

With 42.87 million already in the bank, just about everyone and their brother is predicting 50% or more drop offs from last weekend. I'm thinking it'll fall actually even more. Giving it a 65% fall would have it making 12 million this weekend and 56 total as it begins week two.

The second week should bring more 1 million dollar days each day, taking the film to 60 million heading into the third weekend. I'm not so sure the drops will stabilize for this turkey. A suggested 6 million that weekend and 4 million the third, along with a few million along the way for weekdays, and I currently would guess 10KBC is headed for a delist of 73-77, still a substantial short from where it is priced at time of post (H$89.76).

Since KIDS Fund isn't holding College Road Trip, I don't really see a reason to go into much detail on the matter. I think its a more unpredictable stock and therefore less profitable. Though for the truly dedicated, it made .7 million Monday and Tuesday and almost that Wednesday. With 15.71 already put away for the Raven flick, the movie will suffer huge competition from Horton Hears a Who. I think it may find 7 million, but wouldn't be surprised if it makes even less giving it a horrible week-to-week drop off percent. That's almost unheard of for a G rated film, but it apparently is that bad.

Finally moving on to the big boy, Horton. Opening in 3954 theatres, the animated Dr. Seuss flick is ready to dominate. Expectations are high and with the last few weeks featuring such disappointment it'd be nice to see a film really soar, don't you think?

Most of the usual suspects, tracking, other movie site prognosticators all think the film is going to open north of 40 million. They're all kind of lining up around the 45 million, which is awfully convenient since that's where the stock has been trading. Well, here at KIDS Fund, we don't follow the trend! Back in January we said 50+ million for Horton Hears a Who and we're sticking with it. (Qale actually said 60 million a few times on the message boards.)

So this is it... our first BIG movie is about to leap out the gate. Will it make us? Will it break us? Will it be an absolute wash? We'll know soon enough when Friday's numbers start rolling in, though considering the film, it'll likely cause premature panic, so don't take anything too seriously if the number doesn't knock the socks completely off.

Fundcast - Episode 5

2008-03-10T22:10:00.003-04:00

Episode 5: Hunches in Bunches

The often talked about, but never seen KIDS Fundcast is now live! We're breaking down why Horton is going to make so much money, you'll be eating $H for breakfast, and what all the hubbub is about with Drillbit Taylor.

As always, keep mean thoughts to yourself, and insincere but kind-sounding comments posted below.

Oh snap! KIDS split the weekend.

2008-03-10T17:04:00.005-04:00

Raven-Symone has had a pretty sorry movie career. This may be something we didn't consider when we decided to hold long her flick College Road Trip this weekend.

It was an odd title for a G rated slapstick bonanza made even more gonzo considering Martin Lawrence's track record of vulgarity.

But back to Raven for a moment. Her long lasting show "That's So Raven" and involvement with "The Cheetah Girls" apparently doesn't translate into auto-appeal for the highly unpredictable tween girl market. So College Road Trip stumbled out of the gate, dropping lower than predictions of 17 million. Earning only 14, we dropped the ball and some points on this one. I guess that MENSA caveman wasn't so dumb after all.

Post adjust is rather conflicting as well. With the G rating, it should suffer smaller drops than most fare. However, if it didn't really do all that well to begin with, are there really going to be people scrambling to get to it in weeks 2, 3, and 4? There is also Horton Hears A Who right on its tail. Considering we're not sure how to play this one, we've decided to let it go for now.

Personally, if I had to guess, I'd suggest the film will earn around 400k daily this week and find possibly as much as 6 million next weekend. That'd set it up at 22 and some change going into the next week. It's just not that exciting of a post-adjust in my opinion.

The other opener was the big dawg 10,000BC a film savagely attacked by critics and moviegoers alike! Still, money trickled in and while on Friday it looked like KIDS Fund would be missing both of the flicks, something magical happened as the weekend continued.

Or, Warner Brothers severely overestimated to save face.

Whatever the case, the dino-licious film brought in 35.7 million dollars. Pretty much right on the money with our expectations, so we did a good job with this one.

Better news than the few points it adjusted up is going to be the post-adjust story with this puppy. With almost universally bad word of mouth, 10,000BC will surely drop severely next weekend. Guesses vary, but I'd peg it at 60%+ which would virtually make it extinct by the time weekend number three even approaches.

Give the film just a hair over a million dollars a day this Mon-Thurs, and we're looking at (depending on how much it was overestimated) around 38 million going into the second weekend. With the huge expected drop, the film could find itself with a mere 15 million dollars to add to the tally. Things may balance out after that, but I wouldn't count on it. The post-adjust on this is a very easy short and pretty much never look back situation.

In other quick news:

**Spiderwick Chronicles delists tonight. Depending on the actuals, it'll say goodbye at around 62 dollars a share. While we didn't get the adjust right, I'm still pleased with the results.

**The 5th episode of the KIDS Fundcast should debut tomorrow. It'll be a combined episode so we can take the next weekend off from filming. So you'll learn all about Horton Hears a Who and Drillbit Taylor which come out this Friday and next respectively.

But for now, the current running KIDS Fund opener tally is: 2 called right. 2 called wrong.

Fundcast Episode 4

2008-03-03T11:58:00.003-05:00

Episode 4: That's So KIDS Fund

Another delicious episode delivered straight to your desk. This episode features real proper lighting and color correcting. We spare no expenses when it comes to viewing pleasure. As always, please leave feedback and let us know how we're doing.

KIDS Fund, away!

Another week without new KIDS openers. -sigh-

2008-03-02T16:37:00.008-05:00

We're proud to say we got all the flicks we could play this weekend right. That's because for the second week in a row, we didn't have any stocks we could play for adjust. So sad, lots of silverfish.

Things are about to change though. As next week we'll have two, count em, two movies opening that we're holding. We'll get to the analysis of that in a bit. First, we have some unfinished business with a certain Highmore to take care of.

SPDWC - The Spiderwick Chronicles is moving into its fourth and final week as far as HSX is concerned. At present time of post, it's priced at H$58.48. It's actual box office through the weekend is estimated at $55.08 million dollars. During the week last week it was pulling in roughly a half milly every day. I think that trend can continue, maybe just a hint weaker. So let's give it 1.7 million dollars for it's final Mon-Thur period. That'll put us at nearly 57 million.

This past weekend it made 8.7 million a drop off from the week before of 33%. With some good competition from our two new KIDS releases, this weekend it could be knocked back to making about 4 million. That means our delist estimate for this movie is around 61 dollars a share.

10KBC - 10,000 BC is opening this Friday, March 7th. It has a PG-13 rating for violence and action sequences. KIDS believes this film, which features every young boy's favorite things -- Dinosaurs!! Rawr!! -- to perform very well. Dominating the weekend and stomping on everything in its path like a woolly mammoth.

Expectations are high, and while there is some concern about the film having no notable stars, the special effects are the star here just as they were in The Day After Tomorrow. (Sorry Jake.) Currently priced at H$96.87, we're thinking it will bring in 36 million and hoping for an even bigger catch.

CLGRT - College Road Trip is also opening this Friday, March 7th. It has a very accessible G rating and features Raven Simone, another one of Disney's huge success stories. Martin Lawrence is there too, fresh off a 16 million opening for Welcome Home, Roscoe Jenkins. This is a much more wholesome affair, despite the college theme. Are We There Yet feels similar and posted similar opening numbers, 18.5 million in a January of 05.

Currently priced at H$45.67 it needs 16 million to break even. This is right in line with what I was talking about in the last paragraph, so this stock will bear lots of watching since we expect around 17 million for the opening of this probably mind-numbing Disney flick.

Tune in tomorrow for the long-awaited 4th episode of the KIDS Fundcast. And later in the week, there will be the number of screens report as well as last minute thoughts.

Big bling comes not by way of adjust

2008-02-25T00:20:00.002-05:00

Chronicle Another Week

2008-02-22T09:00:00.006-05:00

Another week into the annals of KIDS Fund history, and more money in the bank. We've managed to slap a hot H-dollar into the hands of shareholders and move that much closer to delist.

The Spiderwick Chronicles (SPDWC) performed strongly on Monday with a $5.7M BO. That combined with 1.somethingish weekdays brings the total going into the weekend to right at $30M. A $10-12M BO this weekend should come easily with no other kids movies out, bringing the two week total up to over $40M.

Double news item for the unstoppable Hannah Montana with the Best of Both Worlds Concert (HMMCB) delisting on Monday with a mind-crushing $60M BO thus far. Bono can only dream of numbers like that!

It's...
Hannah Montana: The Movie (HANNA) gets a release date of 5-1-2009. Mark the calendar with a pink heart and plan for even more crazy cash as the Hannah Montana show rumbles through its second season with an inevitable third season ending just as the movie opens. You know, unless she goes to rehab - for extreme popularity!!!

Happy trading and don't forget The Signal opens limited this weekend - go see it and help me pay the bills!

Fantasy Flick Freakin' Fails

2008-02-18T17:35:00.004-05:00

All The Spiderwick Chronicles had to do was make just a bit more money in order for us to be right on the nose with our predictions, but nooooooo, it didn't cooperate on Thursday and would continue not cooperating the rest of the extended holiday weekend.

As noted previously, Freddie Highmore's fantasy romp opened very softly on opening day, Thursday. Perhaps marred by it also being Valentine's Day, the flick managed 2.3 million.

Friday things didn't go much higher with 4.5 million in estimated sales.

Finally by the time the actual weekend came around more reasonable tallies started to trickle in. But even the 8.1 million on Saturday, and 6.5 million on Sunday were below our estimates.

Spiderwick did find 5.3 million today which is kind of weird considering today isn't even over. ROTFLOLBBQ!! I guess they're just guessing on today's number kind of like they usually do on Sundays.

Anyhoo, we got the adjust wrong. Shedding about 7.50 a share, we've now officially called 1 correct and 1 wrong. Boo hoo!!

So where do we go from here? Well one of the *good* things about the 2.2 multiplier is that while it smacked us around over the weekend, it'll play to our favor in the post adjust. Kid flicks tend to do better than even the normal 2.8 multipliers, and with two weeks until 10,000BC and even longer before Horton does indeed Hear a Who, it's safe we think to continue holding The Spiderwick Chronicles long.

We'll keep watching its second weekend to see if that holds true, so stay tuned for further post adjust analysis.

On another post-adjust front, Hannah Montana continues making everyone happy with more money coming in. She pulled in another 3.2 million over the extended weekend and is currently at a total pull of 58.4 million. As of this post, she's still priced on the exchange well below this mark, making her an automatic long.

Finally today, we also have a bond associated with Spiderwick. Freddie Highmore! He's losing the big box office giant Charlie and the Chocolate Factory from his TAG, which I'm told is the Trailing Average Gross. Now Colin and I aren't Starbond experts. But after checking here (big ups to HSJ!) we're making some big bucks with holding him short finally. That's good news since he soooo owes us for not making Spiderwick a better moneymaker this weekend.

See you later in the week for updates on where Spiderwick Chronicles is headed as well as the first sneak peek at how many screens 10,000BC could be looking at and if there is a snowballs chance in hell that Ratatouille can manage a surprise win at the Oscars™ for Best Original Screenplay.

Spiderwick takes early lumps in extended weekend.

2008-02-16T14:25:00.004-05:00

With KIDS Fund's second flick to halt, we really had yet another challenging multiplier on our hands and things aren't looking very good in the early going this Valentine's Day + President's Day extended holiday weekend gangbang.

We predicted The Spiderwick Chronicles, which features two Freddy Highmores for the price of one, would adjust to around 64 dollars come Monday. Here's how things stand right now:

Thursday the fantasy flick brought in 2.3 million dollars, which was slightly below the 3 million we were predicting.

Friday we came up even more short with our predictions. We were pulling for 8 million, but it only managed 4.4 million.

Obviously, we're going to have to rely on Saturday bringing in bigger numbers and perhaps an overestimation on Sunday to get this thing where it becomes a slight loss to wash situation.

Check back here to see how it all throws down on President's Day, Monday.

In other news: Hannah Montana is finally seeing some wear and tear. It's not easy out there for a Cyrus once everyone starts getting a bit tired of your overstayed welcome. Miley's concert film was bringing in daily pulls of nearly a half million this past week.

But sadly on Friday night the uptick wasn't so great and she managed only to find 760k.

With the stock as of this post still hovering below the actual box office gross of 55.8 million, this thing still has some money left to be squeezed out of it. However, like we've been saying, that 60 million delist is starting to look a bit out of reach.

Fundcast - Episode 3

2008-02-11T10:21:00.000-05:00

Episode 3 - Closer Than You Think

Welcome KIDS Fund shareholders, and curious passersby! Watch with wonder and amazement as this episode of the fundcast recaps the joys of mega-millions with the Hannah Montana concert, and gives our opinions on the upcoming Spiderwick Chronicles.

Hannah Weekdays And First Look at Spiderwick.

2008-02-07T16:31:00.001-05:00

Slowly the money has been coming in every day as Hannah Montana collects the allowances and lunch money of her adoring fans.

Monday, she brought in another 3.2 million.
Tuesday, she found 2.8 million.
Wednesday, she got another 2.8 million.

The trend here is actually just slightly lower than what we'd predicted, so we're going to have to adjust our scope down a few notches to around 56 million for delist estimate on HMMCB.

Though to her credit, she is getting 4 more screens this weekend.

Meanwhile, Colin and I are filming this weekend the third episode of the award winning KIDS Fundcast. (The awards ceremony was not televised due to the ongoing writer's strike, btw.)

The next flick we have to look forward to is next weekend's Spiderwick Chronicles (SPDWC).

We're not out of the woods yet, no pun intended, when it comes to wacky hijinks on the flicks multiplier. Opening on Thursday, Valentine's Day, February 14th, that means there will be a previous box office addition situation.

Oh, and the weekend is President's Day Weekend too! So not only do we have to go get new bed mattresses for 20% off, we have to deal with the brand spanking new 2.2 three-day Holiday weekend multiplier.

Confused? You won't be after you see our third episode of The KIDS Fundcast which will be out early next week. Until then, ponder this last piece of tasty information just in from the big D.

SPIDERWICK CHRONICLES PARAMOUNT Thu, 2/14/08 3500+ THEATRES/WIDE

Nailed It!

2008-02-03T14:33:00.001-05:00

Despite Hannah Montana's epic concert flick (HMMCB) dropping 21 cents with the highly unusual 1.0 multiplier adjust today, it's safe to say that it was a big win for KIDS Fund.

As we've been talking about for nearly a month now, the 3D adventure was a real puzzler. Aside from the fact that no one really knows what teenage girls want, everything was way confusing about this double bill of Disney's hottest money making properties.

Now with the announcement of a second weekend, the 1.0 multiplier insures a post-adjust long. But what should we be expecting?

Demand will likely fall off early week as the news has to filter out that Disney isn't gonna let Miley out of theatres just yet. But then there is the bonus of new and likely repeat buisness for that rabid rabid fanbase that can't seem to get enough of their hip homegirl.

With 29 million already in the bank, we may likely see as much as 2-3 million per day Mon-Thursday and another 20 million next weekend. While there will probably be a lot of traders unsure if such a feat is possible, KIDS Fund is still not about to bet against her.

So that means, post-adjust, our plan is to continue our long holding to near 60 dollars a share.

Briefly in other news, rumor on the boards went around earlier in the weekend that The Spiderwick Chronicles (SPDWC) maybe will be featuring the first trailer for Indiana Jones 4: The Really Weirdo Title (INDI4).

Hannah Montana Juggernaut Gets 2nd Week!

2008-02-01T19:09:00.000-05:00

Let the good times and the big money roll as the Hannah Montana Best of Both Worlds Concert event gets a second week of play time. With a 1.0 multiplier already locked in (683 screens), this is a sure thing for a massive post adjust gain.

Thanks to notfabio for this piece of info!!

Fundcast - Episode 2

2008-01-28T08:56:00.000-05:00

Episode 2: Worst of All Worlds

The KIDS Fund weighs in on the monumental kids event of all time - the Hannah Montana Concert. Will it be be a flop? Will it play for one, two, or twenty weeks!? Watch now to find out!!

As always, comments are welcome and appreciated.

Future Tense

2008-01-27T17:20:00.000-05:00

Getting the KIDS Fund rolling is a tough thing to do when we've been given such difficult and challenging openers like Hannah Montana's concert film. Fortunately, the future looks a bit more traditional. Here are our expectations for some upcoming flicks.

Tune in either Monday or Tuesday for our more in-depth coverage of the teen girl phenomonmoinom that's equal parts dope and hip with kids today in another episode of the Fundcast.

HMMCB - 2/01/08 - 23+ million.
*680+ screens, strong pre-sales, possible 2nd week.
SPDWC - 2/14/08 - 26 million + 4 million Thurs.
*Truly empty kids market, Not a Walden film
HORTN - 3/14/08 - 50+ million
*Continued empty kids market, Grinch, Jim Carrey.

Fundcast: Episode 1: Revenge of the Episode

2008-01-26T10:22:00.000-05:00

Episode 1: George Lucas Special Edition

Special director's cut of Episode 1 of the KIDS Fundcast - now with more Dewbacks!!! You can actually hear some of the useful thoughts we spew out between drinks.

680+ Screens for Hannah Montana.

2008-01-24T18:28:00.003-05:00

The big ol' D posted his weekly list of screens for this upcoming weekend. While KIDS fund doesn't have anything coming out along side SPARTAAAA, there is something very curious about the bottom of the post.

680+ Screens is what's being called for when it comes to the release of Hannah Montana's concert flick.

So that means we are totally on for having a frolicking good time with Disney Channels hueg cash cow.

And the Shiny Gold Man Thingy™ nominees are...

2008-01-22T15:36:00.001-05:00

The nominations for the 152nd Annual Oscar Awards That May Not Happen Due To The Writers Strike were announced this morning.

CongRATS are in order mostly to Disney's "Ratatouille" who, while also being almost freaking impossible to spell correctly, is nominated for 5 awards including Best Animated Feature Film, Original Screenplay, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing, and Original Score.

"Surf's Up" is also nominated for Best Animated Feature Film as well as Movie We Totally Forgot About.

"Transformers" joins "Ratatouille" in many areas including Sound Mixing and Sound Editing, as well as getting its own nod in the Visual Effects department. Apparently there was more to the film than meets the eye your fun and games are threatening to poke out.

"Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End" is also nominated for Visual Effects. Maelstroms don't make themselves you know.

"Enchanted" is way over exposed in the Original Song department, proving that princesses truly are a greedy lot. "Happy Working Song," "So Close," and "That's How You Know" are all nominated and are equally going to be truly terrible to hear Robin Williams try to do impressions of if there actually is a ceremony on February 24th.

The 2008 HSX Award Options will be IPOed on Wednesday.

ConBRATZ!

2008-01-22T01:13:00.001-05:00

While we're pretty sure that those Razzies don't know what they're talking about. WhatEVER! They did nominate one of the hottest properties to hit the big screen since, like, Pokemons.

That's right, kiddos, I'm talking about Bratz: The Movie!

Sure, the film took a dive faster than one of the girls under the bleachers, but it's not every year that we get to see a feature film about young girls skanking it up in a movie version of products actually marketed towards 6-11 year olds.

So great job on your FIVE Razzie nominations: Worst Screen Couple, Remake/Rip-Off, Supporting Actor, Actress, Picture.

Colin and I are so proud of you! You're all daddy's little girls gone wild.

Hannah Montana: Breaking Your Achy Breaky Heart on Feb 1?

2008-01-21T17:11:00.000-05:00

As you may know KIDS Fund 4's first flick to adjust will be the really unique and lengthy titled film Hanna Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert Tour.

What makes this film so interesting is that it's been stated it will only be in theatres for ONE WEEK ONLY!

Oh. And tickets are FIFTEEN DOLLARS EACH!

And while we had early projections of 650 screens, FilmJerk in the Early Report suggests that Disney is only looking at 450-500 screens.

This, of course, poses a real mondo whacko scene to get even more mondoer and whackoer.

What happens if our fairy princess doesn't have her movie open in more than 650 screens? It won't trigger the already strange note that D. Mac put on its stock page:

"Note: Since the film is scheduled to play for only one week, this MovieStock will halt and adjust using a 1.0 mutiplier if it opens on more than 650 theaters."

Colin and I still believe that even with less screens, this thing is going to be a rad affair and totally huge success. As if! Screenings are already being reported sold out and it's not even opening until NEXT weekend! Our original thoughts were leaning towards 20-22 million.

But it's a very fluid situation and it makes for playing the stock really tough. You'll definitely want to keep tuned for the latest screen information. That'll be finalized by NEXT Thursday.

Until then, hold on to those tickets. Scalping them to kids may become even more profitable if this thing doesn't see enough canvas.

Thank Yew Netflix!

2008-01-21T11:41:00.000-05:00

Here at KIDS Fund we want to make you the most money possible, so not only do we hire the former Wall Street brokers to do in depth analysis of upcoming movies and market trends, but we also click on COLD CASH links each and every day.

We have not been nearly as successful as we hoped we would (thanks for nothing, imooch!), but Netflix, glorious Netflix, has tossed $H100,000 our way since KIDS IPOd.

Thank Netflix for your insane profits, and also for the ability to keep kids mesmerized for hours at time.

Humm, hum, humm, humm

2008-01-17T13:26:00.000-05:00

We know you just loved our Fundcast opening song, so here's a link for you: link! This link(!), gives you access to the song so you can have and hold it forever.

By the way, if you didn't pick up KIDS yesterday, you're already missing out. That's right, we're in the black after just one day of operation and catching the wave of change on some news. We'll probably be delisting by March, but don't hold us to that.

Fundcast - Episode 1

2008-01-16T08:42:00.000-05:00

Episode 1: The Fundtom Menace

Here you go kids, drink it up!!! This is the first in the series of many videos over the life of KIDS Fund 4 to explain our trading, why we're playing some stocks, how we're holding openers, and to just have some fun. Hope you enjoy!

Please be sure to leave comments and candy.

By the by, we've chosen daily motion to host the video because of their vastly superior encoding, but if you have any problems viewing, we can easily upload to youtube or other places that you know work. Just let us know in comments accompanied with candy.

KIDS Fund 4 Available Now!

2008-01-15T14:28:00.001-05:00

What does J.J. Abrams, a little Romanian Girl with a broken arm, and two guys in their mid-twenties with way too much free time on their hands all have in common?

That's right! All are involved with IPOs today on HSX!

Today is the first day you can get your greedy little hands on shares of KIDS Fund 4. That's a 100% increase from Kids Fund 3. Buy now at the low, low, price of H$ 202,000. This offer will not be repeated and this product will not be sold in stores! Don't miss out!

Upcoming Kid Flicks

2008-01-13T02:32:00.000-05:00

February

February 1 - HMMCB - Hannah Montana/Miley Cyrus: Best of Both Worlds Concert

February 14 - SPDWC - The Spiderwick Chronicles

March

March 14th - HORTN - Horton Hears A Who

~~March 19th - INKHT - Inkheart~~ (Moved to 1/30/09.)

All dates subject to change. Also films such as 10,000BC (10KBC), Drillbit Taylor (DRILB) and Superhero Movie (SHERO) are at this time under consideration for holding. Void in Utah or where prohibited by law. Member FDIC. Not liable for damage or loss. Please do not eat.

KIDS Fund IPO - Tuesday

2008-01-12T21:31:00.000-05:00

Put on your party hats, KIDS Fund (re)IPOs on Tuesday!! We'll begin making trades in the fund at midnight on WEDNESDAY and bringing in that sweet easy fund cash. Buy buy buy, and experience that new fund smell!

Also coming on Wednesday is the first episode of the KIDS Fund Fundcast!! Get your Jack Daniels and play the Fundcast drinking game with Colin and Qale - we drink, you drink!

Topics include: Hannah Montana, butts, world hunger, watching children's films - alone, Frank, and many others.

We hear the episode is already hitting the streets in Singapore.

We value your feedback!!! Press ALT+F4 to bring up the feedback form and leave some love.

(Qale edit: We IPO on Tuesday and can make trades on Wednesday, yippie!)