Short! Long! No wait...

Well, as you all well know, Transformers did all sorts of record breaking and also broke KIDS Fund... almost. I've still got a little money left and I hope to redeem myself this weekend.

The rundown - massive adjust up for Transformers. It had a nice drop on Monday, but has gone up at an alarming rate Tuesday and Wednesday, so I decided to drop it and let it go. It's too much money to flip it constantly, and it's too much of a risk to keep draining the Fund.

Coming out today: Ice Age 3D. While Transformers will *sigh* continue to rake in big bucks, I'm hoping a bit of younger-skewed entertainment will be just what the family ordered over the 4th of July holiday. Here's my thoughts on the matter: $12M Wednesday, $10M Thursday, $60M weekend. That should give me a nice upwards adjust, with good legs through the next few weeks. I think Harry Potter will kill it at that point, so maybe hold until it gets to H$190 or so. These are all speculations, so feel free to disregard, especially after my terrible math last week.

Keep trading. New HSX is getting faster as time goes on, so it should get easier!

Transform Me the Money!

In perhaps one of the most foolish - or brilliant - starts in KIDS Fund history, Transformers 2 will be held short. "Why, oh, why are you not on the hype wagon?" you might ask. Well, I have some very good reasons and here they are:

1) Looks like Wednesday will be around $50M. Let's give the movie another $40M on Wednesday. At current price (H$338), the movie would need to make $92M over the weekend just to break even. The original didn't even do that well with nobody going in knowing how good or bad it would be. Given reviews, RT scores, etc, it seems unlikely this one will top the other.

2) Severe frontloading from Wednesday will impact the weekend BO. I predict somewhere around $70M, resulting in a massive short.

3) Even if it does make money, it will be a post adjust short (at least for the short term). Swapping from long to short would be close to H$700k. I'd rather be sitting short to begin with.

4) C'mon. It looks terrible.

Some doubts: IMAX, people don't care how bad movies look, people thought the first one was terrific, people think *shudder* Megan Fox is *shudder* attractive, on and on. There is no way to tell, but we will see on Sunday.

Also, don't forget to set back your clocks tonight... no wait, don't forget to make all of your trades by 4PM today - we'll be on new HSX tomorrow evening!

Thanks for reading, and I hope we all get this one right. Happy trading!

KIDS Fund IPOing Again!

That's right boys and girls. KIDS Fund is back. A moment of silence for Qale who will not be running the fund this time around....

Silence.

Okay. On to other important things. I managed to get a snapshot of the fund before it was cleared, so I should be ready to get everything radared and set on Wednesday of next week. Please shoot me an email or post on Movies if you see I'm missing a critical KIDS movie.

Recap: I look forward to a cool new year and hopefully will be as successful as Qale was in his reign. IPO Tuesday, trading begins Wednesday. I will have a link for buying then...

Thanks and happy trading!

He's so dreamy...

[This post about Zac Efron's new film 17 Again (SVNTN) has been censored by Net Nanny because it only consisted of sick deviant things that Qale and Colin would do if they were, in fact, 17 Again. Instead of submitting loyal fans of the KIDS Fundblog to such depravity, we instead feature this picture of a kitten. We also would like to notify you that the KIDS Fund will be holding 17 Again LONG and are predicting 20-23 million.]

Winners, Once and Always

That's right, KIDS' faithful, we have picked them all right! We're back in the game! It was a glorious weekend for some films, embarrassingly bad for others. More on that in a second. The important thing is that this gave us a much needed boost and we are sitting at just over H$97 million at the moment and are ready to delist in the next few weeks. If we slump again..well.. it could be August before you're rid of us.

On to the movies. Hannah Montana gave us a great bump last time around and didn't fail is this time either. Miley gave us a $34M weekend resulting in a very large upward adjust from H$75.72 to H$91.80. In addition, the movie pulled in another $4.6 million on Monday and has continued to do well this week. Could be another good weekend, we shall see.

Dragonball Evolution was not so lucky, only pulling in $4.65 million all weekend. It adjusted downward, and I don't anticipate it getting to its price. I actually saw this one - it was terrible. Just terrible. I mean, you've never seen a movie this bad. WOM will kill this one if anybody has the sense to listen.

Coming up next week - THE WORLD!!! Well, something like that, the documentary Earth. It's priced cheap and won't take much to have a big jump. Here's hoping it will delist us!

Full Circle with Hannah Montana

So we meet again Miss Hannah Montana.  IF THAT IS YOUR REAL NAME!

Yes indeed it is with the Achy Breaky Offspring that KIDS Fund got its start this time around and maybe it'll be how we finally pull this train into the station.

Except, unfortunately, I'm as less certain of this movie's box office potiential as I've ever been.  Sure, her 3D Concert Experience did over 30 million.  But it was assumed at the time it'd be a 1 week only performance.

Oh and since then Jonas Brothers ripped us apart, threw is down, and kicked dirt in our faces.

Still, I keep relying on old standbys when it comes to this sort of prediction and here there are.

1. KIDS market is pretty much cleared out now that Aliens vs Monsters has had some time to itself in theatres.

2. Hannah Montana IS still big.  She still posts songs in the top charts and the ads claim there are handfuls of new tunes to be heard exclusively during the movie.

3. Her film is rated G!  It's been a little while since we've seen a G rated flick hit the theatres.  This is one that the entire family can enjoy over the Easter Weekend.

So with all that in mind, I think Hannah Montana can beat expectations of tracking in the mid-twenties and climb into the low 30s.  I think it'll be a nail biter photo finish for first place with Fast and the Furious with the boys coming out on top, but with a LONG adjust for our favorite Disney chick.

Monsters vs FAIL

Well, once again we've gambled and lost.  Monsters vs Aliens did a massive $59.3 million weekend, which was even higher than the estimates HSX used to adjust it upward to H$157.14.  We didn't lost a lot, but every bit helps. 

MVSA has pulled in over $3 million a day since its release, so I expect it to have MONSTER legs as this weekend's openers ALIENate the kid demographic yet again.  

No fear, faithful play money players - we have two very cool openers coming up April 10th.  Dragonball Evolution, a live-action treatment of the popular cartoon series, and the big potential film Hannah Montana the movie.  I'm a bit scared, but if we get these right, we'll be oh so close to delisting. And that's all we really want, right?

Until next time, happy trading!