Not by a Longshot

NOTE: The movie pictured to the left is not The Longshots...it is awesome.

The Longshots (LNGSH) did about as well as a Fred Durst directed movie could. It quietly pulled in $4M and, while I would say that there is justice in the world, the surprise hit of the summer, The House Bunny, raked in $14M totally negating that stupid theory. For KIDS fund, this means soaring to new heights and nearing the mid-century mark with our incredibly smrts that directed us towards holding LNGSH short as well as SWTCW continuing to drop like Lucas' popularity.


So where will The Shortshots be going from here? Monday's numbers indicated a mere $300K, and with theaters inevitably dropping this film as soon as possible, I don't expect even those numbers to hold. So Qale can't criticize my fuzzy math, I'm not going to show my work and give a 4 week total of $9.6M. Obviously a short, but if you didn't get it before, not really worth picking up on now.


Sadly, September is a little slow, with nothing until Igor (IGOR) mid-month. Thanks to the loyal KIDS Funders who keep sticking by - we're steadily growing and are mildly hopeful about delisting by year's end.

Longshots enters crowded market.

Dunno if anyone has noticed, but KIDS Fund has been on a winning streak lately. Perhaps the lack of Fundcasts have forced us to focus more on making good decisions?

Nah. I think it's just that the flicks that have been coming out lately have been easy to decide if they were short or long.

Last weekend we correctly guessed that Star Wars: The Clone Wars ( SWTCW ) was going to be a complete disaster. It turned out to open even lower than our predictions bringing us even more cash. Post adjust hasn't been too kind to the flick either, so we'll continue holding it short until the value starts looking more sensible.

This week we have an opener that kind of snuck up on us in The Longshots. (LNGSH )It's a family friendly football film about a girl who gets to play with the boys' pigskin. Wait. That didn't sound right. What I meant to say is it's a flick about gender equality that few people are going to see. There sadly(?) isn't a big market for this type of fluff and so we're predicting a rather soft 4-6 million opening for the Ice Cube and Fred Durst film.

September currently looks empty for us, so it'll be a challenge to keep that graph going in the positive direction. But thankfully October has a potiential huge cash cow in High School Musical 3. (HISM3)

Good luck and happy trading.

Contempt we feel for Star Wars cartoon.

Probably strictly only for the youngest viewers along with fanboys still suckling at the massive teet of George Lucas, Star Wars: The Clone Wars (SWTCW) is being released in theatres tomorrow.

The price has taken a serious nosedive from when Colin shorted it back at 81.42 making us some seriously needed cash.

But the question is, should we remain short on the project?

Early reports from advance sales guru Not Fabio point to an opening similar to TMNT, but I question that this cheep looking cartoon can make 23 million in this market.

Older teen boys have other options. Tropic Thunder and Mirrors this week and hold overs like Pineapple Express and even The Dark Knight still linger.

KIDS Fund has been on a roll lately getting several openers right. Hopefully, we can keep things going with a continued short on this subpar Star Wars project. We're predicting 15-17 million making the adjust somewhere near 45 dollars per share.

In other news: Harry Potter 6 (HPOT6), which we weren't holding, was moved to next July taking the magic out of this holiday season. While the move will no doubt help Disney's Bolt BOLT and The Tale of Despereaux (TDSPR), we're so disappointed we have to wait another year almost for the newest Potter flick.

The Mummy: Tanks

Ah, those dreaded "third installments." The Mummy 3 (MUMY3) was no exception, bringing in an unimpressive $40.4 million over the weekend. This is even less than the estimated $42.45 million that HSX used to adjust the stock down slightly to H$118.86. Hey, mummy money!



Where is this stock going to wander? Here's my thoughts:


Key: Week: Mon #, Tues #, Wed #, Thurs #, Weekend # = Week #/Total #


2: 4, 3, 3, 4, 22 = 36/76


3: 2, 2, 2, 3, 15 = 24/100


4: 1, 1, 2, 2, 12 = 18/118


Huh. $118 million. So, not much change. Worth hanging on to all H-cabbage that for the H$8 it will get you in a few weeks? I'll let you decide...

(QALE UPDATE: I don't agree with this fuzzy math at all. Mummy 3 made 40 million in the first weekend and is likely to drop about 60%. The drops won't start evening out until maybe week 3 or 4. I think it'll be more like upper 80's low 90's for delist.)


New movie time!! And look, it's a sequel. To a movie nobody really saw to begin with. Sisterhood of the Traveling Pants 2 (STPN2) It's currently priced at around H$49. That number has to be adjusted by the following formula [Previous Box Office + (2.8*Box Office Fri-Sun)]. Uh huh. The first one opened to a $10 million weekend, and was at a mere $33 million after week 4. I give this a generous opening weekend of $12 million, since there aren't a lot of movies out right now for the 9 - 12 year old girl crowd. That means it would have to rake in more than that (over $15 million) on Wednesday and Thursday to break even. Even if you bump it up a few more million, you're still looking at needing to take in almost the weekend's worth of BO in just two weekdays.

KIDS stance: WE LIKE SHORT SHORTS!!!

That's all for now. Come back soon to see how we did and get more ramblings about box office predictions and see how wrong we really are capable of being.

The Mummy Returns, Different Mummy Though.

Back in May of 2001, Mr. Fraser enjoyed a huge blockbuster opening of 60+ million for The Mummy Returns. Now, over seven years and not May later, Mr. Fraser already has one action flick out and is poised to unleash another Mummy film. Will it also open to 60+ million?

Current trading signs point to no. HSX Traders as of this post put the new film (which also stars Jet Li, yum) at a 46 million dollar debut.

Why the low ball number?

A couple of reasons come to mind: It's August not May. It's been 7 years. And last weekend X-Files 2 really stunk up the joint. Oh, and The Dark Knight is still kicking massive box office booty.

Still, we here at KIDS Fund have always been bullish on the Brendan. While we weren't so confident that a 3-D Journey to the Center of the Earth remake would work all that well (Mostly because we hate Walden, duh), there is nothing in this world that would make us not believe in the always relevant Mummy franchise. The fact that this one sports a three-headed dragon and yeti is just a bonus!

UPDATE: Well there is something that could squash our hopes. Absolutely bargain basement reviews and no one showing up for midnights. This changes things. We're now thinking mid-30s and possibly Dark Knight taking a third weekend on top.

Everything is better with monkeys.

As usual, things didn't go according to plan this past weekend with our "Short 'em all" decision to hold the trio of kid-flicks.

Hellboy 2 and Journey to the Center of the Earth both performed about 5 million above our predictions and brought misery upon the port. This was even in spite of Eddie Murphy providing us with a delicious bomb ripe for the shorting.

Such as life, and we naturally think all three are post-adjust shorts, however Journey sure isn't acting like it in the early going this week. Don't worry about it. Brendan won't be able to keep up the momentum and the 3-D gimmick will look mighty stupid as the Mummy 3 ad campaign continues to roll out.

So moving on to this upcoming weekend...

While we'd simply LOVE to play us some Dark Knight, the restart of the legendary Batman is certainly not for the younglings. The hueg like X-BOX stock price also doesn't exactly make it really something viable either.

Fortunately, we don't have to sit this weekend out though. We have monkeys!!

SPCHM - Space Chimps is providing a hint of counter-programming for the youngest set. Currently priced to make 9.5 million, obviously traders aren't expecting much from the animated flick. Tracking recently posted by the fabulous notfabio pointed to 5 million and we kind of like that number. (Actually, we kind of like lower than that number.)

Also some news of note: We actually have a bond adjusting sometime in the near future now. Little Miss Sunshine herself (ABRES)was in the failed Kit Kittridge and that sets her up for a drop of around 6 points as of this posting. Sadly her career (and by relation her TAG) is heading down, down, down as the films she starring in has dropped lower with each release.

Finally, I know we keep promising you, the loyal fans and shareholders a new episode of the Fundcast. There are so many reasons why we haven't done another recently. Here are but a few:

1. Colin's -ahem- busier than he used to be.
2. Qale's more broke than he used to be.
3. When you've gone nude, where else is there to go?
4. ????
5. Lack of Profit!!!

She Was An American Girl...

...who underperformed on the 4th of July weekend. However, being your brilliant KIDS Fund managers, we shorted AMGRL and made mondo-profit for you - our supporters and fans.

Total weekend was a mere $3.6 million, with a $2.5 million previous, resulting in a downward adjust of H$21.98. At the time of this post, the stock is at H$13.78 (up a little), but I doubt it will even make that. If you longed it, time to move on. If you shorted, might as well sit on it.

Next weekend: lots of KIDS openers!! Let's get to the predictions, shall we?

Hellboy 2 (HELB2)

First Hellboy opened to $23 million, and only made it to $59 million total. Not shabby, but I doubt the 2nd will have much more support than the first. Currently priced to make $31 million opening weekend, it's looking like a slight short at the moment. KIDS prediction: $27 - 30 million.

Journey to the Center of the Earth (JCNTR)

It's Walden. If you recall past Fundcasts, you'll realize that without Disney, Walden does not make money. Currently priced to make $17.5 million, that's still too much for this dud. KIDS prediction: $12 - 15 million.

Meet Dave (MDAVE)

Eddie Murphey made stupid amounts of money with his smash-hit, February release film "Norbit." Almost $95 million total in the dead months. However, he also had the amazing failure of "The Adventure of Pluto Nash," which traded as high as H$84 at one point, despite only making $4.4 million total. Insane. I have a feeling we're setting up for another big loser. Currently priced to make $14.3 million opening weekend, I'd say for the third time we're looking at a slight short to a wash. KIDS prediction: $11 - 14 million.

So that's how KIDS stands: short 'em all, and let HSX sort 'em out. Happy trading!